A recent survey by Serbia’s Center for Research, Transparency, and Accountability (CRTA) found that 61% of citizens support ongoing protests and blockades following the collapse of a canopy in Novi Sad, an event that has fueled political tensions.
The findings prompted President Aleksandar Vučić to challenge the opposition to initiate a non-binding referendum on his removal, marking a shift in the political landscape. However, analysts caution that while the numbers indicate public dissatisfaction, they do not necessarily signal an imminent change in power.
Protests and Growing Public Discontent
Demonstrations, led primarily by students rather than an organized political alternative, have gained widespread public backing. A recent protest in Slavija Square was the largest civic demonstration in Serbia this century. The movement has drawn support from various segments of society, highlighting growing frustration with the government’s response to the crisis.
Despite the government’s claims of unwavering voter loyalty, the CRTA survey also revealed that 10% of ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) supporters back the protests. Analysts suggest that the authorities’ inadequate handling of the crisis has shaken voter confidence.
However, political experts note that this dissatisfaction may not translate into electoral defeat for the ruling coalition. “The opposition is failing to mobilize this discontent and offer a clear alternative,” said Dejan Bursać, a researcher at the Institute for Philosophy and Social Theory.
Potential Impact on Future Elections
Vučić has maintained his popularity largely due to Serbia’s economic growth, employment rates, and rising wages, particularly in contrast to the economic crisis under former Prime Minister Mirko Cvetković. However, recent events have eroded trust in the government’s narrative, Bursać said.
Despite rising discontent, political analyst Aleksandar Ivković of the Center for Contemporary Politics argues that electoral dynamics remain unchanged. “Many of those supporting the protests may not turn out to vote, but the movement could still reactivate former abstainers, potentially influencing future elections,” he said.
While 10% of government supporters backing the protests suggests a segment of swing voters, Ivković warns that actual electoral shifts depend on whether the opposition or a new political force can mobilize this discontent into votes.
“This survey shows fertile ground for political change,” Ivković said, “but whether it materializes remains to be seen.”
