The number of individuals and entities in the Western Balkans sanctioned by the United States, and to a lesser extent the United Kingdom and other Western nations, has risen significantly in recent years, a trend that accelerated following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, according to a report by the Global Initiative for Transnational Organized Crime, as cited by bne IntelliNews.
High-profile figures including Serbia’s Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin, Albania’s former president and prime minister Sali Berisha, and Republika Srpska’s President Milorad Dodik in Bosnia and Herzegovina have been key targets of sanctions.
Effectiveness Varies Across Region
The report highlights significant variations in the effectiveness of sanctions across the Western Balkans, attributing differences to political, ethnic, and social dynamics. While sanctions have occasionally influenced individual behavior, they have not brought rapid changes to entrenched regional issues.
“Sanctions are not a panacea. They have unsteadied elements of this intricate environment but have not produced swift transformations,” the report states, according to bne IntelliNews.
It emphasizes that sanctions often act as long-term catalysts for broader changes, such as corruption investigations or political shifts, rather than delivering immediate results.
Geopolitical Alignments Shape Impact
The effectiveness of sanctions is closely tied to geopolitical orientations, the report finds. In Albania, ruling politicians have distanced themselves from sanctioned figures, while in Serbia, sanctioned individuals have ascended to senior government roles.
Ruggero Scaturro, co-author of the report “On Target? How Effective Are Sanctions in the Western Balkans?”, noted that ethnic identity and geopolitical alignment heavily influence responses. “Ethnic Albanians, who are strongly pro-U.S., respond differently from groups less influenced by Western pressure,” Scaturro said during a webinar on the report, as cited by bne IntelliNews.
Cultural perceptions also complicate the picture, with many viewing sanctioned individuals as victims rather than perpetrators, undermining systemic change.
Sharp Increase in Sanctions
Sanctions in the region have evolved since the 1990s, shifting from broad measures targeting entire states to more precise actions against individuals and entities. From 2014 to 2024, 166 sanctions were issued, targeting 108 individuals and 58 companies, primarily for corruption, organized crime, and political destabilization. Bosnia and Herzegovina saw the highest number of designations, followed by Serbia.
Fatjona Mejdini, another co-author, highlighted the shift in focus: “Sanctions aimed at preventing destabilization have increasingly targeted corruption and organized crime, driven by the U.S.’s recognition of corruption as a national security threat,” she said, according to bne IntelliNews.
The report also notes the absence of multilateral institutions such as the European Union in sanctioning efforts, despite the region’s aspirations to join the bloc.
High-Profile Cases Highlight Challenges
Dodik remains the region’s most sanctioned individual, yet his political stance remains unchanged. Despite significant financial restrictions, Dodik continues to push for Republika Srpska’s secession.
Similarly, Vulin, sanctioned by the U.S. for corruption and ties to Russian destabilization, resigned in 2023 only to return in 2024 as Serbia’s vice-prime minister.
In contrast, sanctions on Berisha in Albania have had more tangible effects. A corruption investigation linked to the sanctions led to his house arrest, creating uncertainty about his political future.
Recommendations for Policymakers
The report urges a more tailored approach to sanctions, suggesting they be part of broader strategies for regional stability. International cooperation, capacity-building, and investments in local expertise are critical for improving the implementation and long-term impact of sanctions, it concludes.
Reporting by BV; Additional reporting from bne IntelliNews)
