Erdogan has consistently framed his country’s role as a ‘win-win’ partner, offering security assistance and economic cooperation while asserting Türkiye’s strategic necessity for Europe’s long-term stability
- Türkiye is testing its first major security assignment in the Western Balkans — an increasingly volatile region where external influences shape the fragile balance of power
- Türkiye asserts itself as a security player in Europe, its role in the Western Balkans is already shaping regional dynamics. While Türkiye presents itself as a stabilizer, the deep-rooted tensions in Kosovo and Republika Srpska continue to challenge the region’s future
The author is the BCS News Manager at Anadolu.
ISTANBUL
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent remarks on European security have sparked discussions in Western capitals, yet their implications have received little attention in the Balkans. Yet, it is precisely in this historically contested region—where East and West have long clashed—that Türkiye is attempting to redefine its role within Europe’s defense framework.
Following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a reduced American military footprint in Europe, Erdogan moved quickly to frame Türkiye as a central pillar of continental security, arguing that true security in Europe requires Türkiye’s full integration into the EU framework. Far from just rhetoric, this assertion reflects a calculated shift in Türkiye’s foreign and defense policies. Over the past months, Erdogan has engaged in high-level diplomatic meetings, including with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, signaling Türkiye’s growing stake in regional stability. A widely circulated photograph of Erdogan holding an umbrella for Zelenskyy has been interpreted by some as a symbolic gesture of Türkiye’s growing leadership aspirations in regional security, portraying Türkiye as a protector of vulnerable nations in the face of European hesitation.
Meanwhile, as Germany, France, and Italy continue to underinvest in their military capacities, the EU’s dependence on NATO and US forces remains evident. This is where Türkiye steps in. Erdogan has consistently framed his country’s role as a “win-win” partner, offering security assistance and economic cooperation while asserting Türkiye’s strategic necessity for Europe’s long-term stability.
Türkiye’s expanding role in the Balkans
Beyond Western Europe, Türkiye is testing its first major security assignment in the Western Balkans—an increasingly volatile region where external influences shape the fragile balance of power. Türkiye has significantly expanded its military presence in Kosovo, strengthening ties through training programs and defense collaborations. A pivotal moment in this growing relationship came with the establishment of an ammunition factory in Kosovo, cementing Türkiye as a long-term security partner. Additionally, Kosovo’s recent acquisition of Turkish-made drones—previously deployed in conflicts such as Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh war and Ukraine’s resistance against Russia—demonstrates Türkiye’s deeper involvement in the region’s defense planning.
Serbia has taken notice. In a viral TikTok video, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić jokingly compared his barber’s mustache to that of Erdogan’s bodyguards, adding—while laughing—that the barber always asks, “Do you trust me?” as he shaves near his neck. “Of course I do,” Vučić responded, “You remind me of my friend’s bodyguard—how can I not trust you?” Though humorous, the comment reflects a deeper reality: Türkiye’s military and diplomatic presence is becoming an unavoidable factor in the region’s political landscape.
Serbia-Kosovo: A fault line between East and West
At the heart of Türkiye’s Balkan engagement lies the long-standing Serbia-Kosovo dispute—one of Europe’s most persistent geopolitical challenges. While Kosovo declared independence in 2008, Serbia continues to reject its sovereignty, leading to recurring political confrontations. This dispute is further complicated by external power dynamics: Kosovo enjoys firm backing from the US and NATO, while Serbia maintains close ties with Russia, positioning itself as Moscow’s primary ally in the Balkans. Türkiye’s deepening ties with Kosovo place it in a strategically significant position—bridging the divide between NATO-aligned interests and regional security concerns. However, any shift in the balance of power, whether through increased Western influence in Kosovo or Serbia’s continued alignment with Russia, has the potential to escalate regional tensions.
Republika Srpska and Kosovo: A paradox of political strategies
Beyond the Serbia-Kosovo axis, another complex development is unfolding in Bosnia and Herzegovina, particularly within the Serb-majority entity of Republika Srpska (RS). On the surface, RS and Kosovo might appear diametrically opposed—one seeking secession from Bosnia, the other striving for broader recognition. Yet their strategies mirror each other in revealing ways. Kosovo’s government, dominated by ethnic Albanians, has pursued greater integration into Western institutions while systematically reducing Serbian influence within its borders. Measures like limiting Serbian governance, increasing border control, and incorporating Serb-majority regions into central institutions illustrate this strategy.
Conversely, RS’s leadership in Banja Luka has taken steps to increase its autonomy from Bosnia and Herzegovina, with some leaders openly advocating for secession and unification with Serbia. While Kosovo seeks to distance itself from Serbian influence, RS is actively strengthening its ties with Belgrade, openly challenging Bosnia’s central government. This paradox highlights the deep geopolitical rift in the Balkans, where political maneuvers are influenced by global power struggles. The US and EU staunchly back Kosovo’s sovereignty, while Russia and Serbia support RS’s push for greater autonomy.
Escalating political crisis in RS
Tensions in Bosnia have reached new heights. The latest flashpoint came when RS President Dodik announced the creation of a separate border police force—a move interpreted by many as a step toward secession. Dodik claims the measure restores RS’s sovereignty over its borders, which had been curtailed by international agreements in 2000. The announcement drew strong warnings from European leaders concerned about Bosnia’s territorial integrity. In parallel, Dodik’s recent sentencing to a one-year prison term and six-year ban from holding office, due to defiance of Bosnia’s central institutions, has only fueled further instability. Meanwhile, the resignation of Darko Ćulum, director of Bosnia’s State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA), signals the widening divide within Bosnia’s security framework.
Türkiye’s diplomatic move in Bosnia
As the political crisis deepens, Türkiye has stepped in as a diplomatic interlocutor. In a surprise development, Bosnian Presidency member Denis Bećirović visited President Erdogan to seek Ankara’s support in countering Republika Srpska’s separatist agenda. The visit reignited political debate in Sarajevo—particularly among Bosniak factions—about the extent and nature of Türkiye’s role. Some critics argue that Bećirović’s outreach follows the legacy of the late Bosniak leader Alija Izetbegović, who maintained close ties with Türkiye. Others see it as a recognition that regional stability increasingly depends on Türkiye’s involvement. The meeting has also reignited discussion about a previously floated proposal involving Croatian President Zoran Milanović and Milorad Dodik, suggesting that the leaders of Croatia, Serbia, and Türkiye act as mediators in Bosnia’s ongoing crisis. The idea was previously rejected by Bosniak political factions, but Bećirović’s approach signals a potential shift in strategy.
During the visit, Erdogan reaffirmed Türkiye’s support for Bosnia’s sovereignty and its Euro-Atlantic integration. However, his silence on Vučić and Dodik’s actions suggests Türkiye is carefully navigating its growing role in the Balkans, balancing diplomacy with its broader strategic interests. As Türkiye asserts itself as a security player in Europe, its first role in the Western Balkans is already shaping regional dynamics. While Ankara presents itself as a stabilizing force, the deep-rooted tensions in Kosovo and RS continue to challenge the region’s future. With shifting alliances and unresolved conflicts, Türkiye’s move into European defense could either contribute to long-term stability—or entrench the Balkans in yet another cycle of geopolitical rivalries. The key question remains: Will Türkiye’s strategic integration into Europe’s defense architecture promote long-term stability? A prospect worth pondering.
*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu’s editorial policy.
