By Preç Zogaj
The Eurobarometer and Italy’s Piepoli Institute—two reliable polling firms previously engaged in Albanian elections with results falling within the margin of error—have, once again this week, captured a near-static image of voter intentions between the two main political blocs: the Socialist Party (PS) and the Democratic Party (PD) alongside its allies. On average, these polls show a ten-point lead in favor of the PS.
It’s a similar gap to that of the 2021 elections, when the PS came out nine points ahead of the PD-led coalition. Yet, two significant details from that time are worth keeping in mind in today’s calculations:
First, in the 2021 coalition, the Democratic Party did not include the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI), which ran independently and secured 6.81% of the vote. Meaning, the combined votes of the PD and LSI were just two points behind the PS—or roughly 37,000 votes.
Second, the nine-point difference between the PS and PD was notably smaller in the polls conducted during the campaign and immediately after the polls closed (exit polls). This lends weight to PD’s claims back then that the final result had been distorted in the final 24 hours through vote buying—something that polls cannot capture.
From this reminder of the 2021 outcome, we can now observe that, four weeks before the May 11 elections, the PD-LSI coalition trails the PS by about 16 points. That 37,000-vote difference has, according to the above-mentioned polls, multiplied significantly. It’s like watching a race between two boats that started neck and neck, only to see one boat steadily widen the gap as they approach the finish line.
And yet, the opposite should have happened. That 37,000-vote shortfall should have long been overturned; the opposition should today be ten or more points ahead, heading confidently toward power. Especially when taking into account the extended wear and tear of four more years in government, and above all, the multitude of corruption scandals involving government officials—scandals verified in courtrooms like never before.
That would have been the case, I believe, had the opposition from the 2021 elections remained intact. United, expanding its ranks, and renewing its elite leadership, it could have won a significant number of municipalities in the 2023 local elections. It could have electorally capitalized on international support, government failures, corruption scandals, and the growing public appetite for change, which intensifies the longer one party remains in power—as is the case with the PS.
The shrinking trajectory of the PD is a sad story that would require volumes to fully recount. People have witnessed it, Democrats and opposition supporters have lived it. Some foresaw the devastating consequences of Sali Berisha’s return to the helm of the largest party—twice worn out from governing and declared persona non grata by both the U.S. and the U.K. Others still believe in his narrative, where half-truths, speculation, and blatant lies are shouted from the rooftops.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But facts are facts. Berisha embarked on a personal crusade against the U.S. with two cannonballs chained to his ankles—an understandable move to defend himself, but one made without due regard for the greater responsibility of enabling a political power shift in Albania.
Having led the PD since February 14, 1991—most of the time as its chairman, and at other times as the puppet master behind his handpicked leaders (Eduard Selami, Tritan Shehu, Lulzim Basha)—Berisha had little trouble regaining majority support within the party once he decided to return.
He promised Democrats a bigger, more united party. Today, under his leadership, the PD is smaller than ever. He promised victory, but suffered the deepest local election defeat in history—even though the official PD at the time backed over 80% of his candidates. He failed to grasp the message from those elections and did not announce new party elections after legally regaining control of it, choosing instead a short-sighted non-participation.
Following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S., Berisha’s entourage has ceaselessly bombarded the public with sensational “news” of invitations to Washington, ceremonial lifting of sanctions, a Trump video message, and so on—absurdly presenting it all as fact, with no official indication to support any of it. Yesterday, at the campaign kickoff, was supposed to be the day. Much was expected. Nothing was said. Not a word from any Western party or institution.
People often feel the need to deceive themselves. It’s a kind of therapy. But when lies are used as instruments of manipulation and are served alongside the truth in broad daylight, they boomerang. As the saying goes: there is no success built on lies. Nor in ambiguity.
And here we are: The Democratic Party is forecast to lose. The trend is unlikely to shift in the few weeks remaining. The dream of political turnover is at risk of becoming a postponed dream—a mirage.
The Socialist Party, led by Rama, is projected to win. A fourth term. Despite the scandals and dark records that the opposition, critical press, and citizens tally up against it daily. How can this be? How is it that Albania has the most electorally dominant Socialist Party in Europe? How is it possible that a government so marred by corruption and crime pays no political price, despite the ongoing investigations and convictions of its central and local officials?
Edi Rama, like his predecessors, would have likely won two elections. But it must be said: he has systematically benefited from political windfalls handed to him by the PD. I’m referring to the infamous 2017 protest tent erected three months before the election, which dismantled the party’s electoral machinery. Then came the burning of parliamentary mandates and the absurd boycott of local elections. Then the separate runs of PD and LSI in 2021, despite the opposition unity that the government’s unilateral constitutional changes demanded. The PS’s sweeping win in the 2023 local elections was made possible thanks to the internal crisis in the PD.
But it doesn’t seem like that will be the end of it. Edi Rama’s next opposition bonus for the May 11 elections is Sali Berisha himself. Unless, as Berisha said, some kind of magic occurs. Frankly, Rama owes him a statue in the party courtyard.
