“Undoubtedly, violence and repression, sooner or later, will only strengthen the protest and opposition sentiments.”
By Boris Varga
Protests and blockades have been ongoing in Serbia for nearly two months, following the deaths of 15 people who were killed by the collapse of a canopy at the Railway Station in Novi Sad. The regime’s repression, the arrest of demonstrators, and the involvement of thugs have spread and popularized the protest, with students and high schoolers across Serbia becoming the main drivers of the protests and blockades by mid-December.
The target group, previously thought to be politically and socially passive, has unexpectedly caused the greatest trouble for President Aleksandar Vučić and the Serbian Progressive Party. Protests and blockades continue at all four universities in Serbia, with an increasing number of high schools, professors, teachers, and even parents joining the side of the rebellious youth.
The demands of the students and high schoolers are generally: full access to the documentation regarding the railway incident in Novi Sad, the prosecution of those responsible for the tragedy and those who beat the demonstrators, and the political resignations of Prime Minister Miloš Vučević and Novi Sad Mayor Milan Đurić.
To President Aleksandar Vučić, the students are sending a message that the investigation is not his job and that he should not interfere, just as it is not his place to offer and promise financial aid to the youth, but rather the job of the relevant authorities.
‘Don’t lie to my grandma and grandpa’
Does this mean that President Vučić can sleep peacefully? Absolutely not, and he is actively commenting on the events. Although it is widely known that in Serbia, all major decisions and key positions are determined by Vučić, the protests have not yet directly pointed the finger of responsibility at him.
However, Vučić sees the protests as an attack on his collective “self” and is unsure how to calm down the youth of Generation Z. Students and high schoolers do not watch “his” television channels or read tabloids; they get their information from other network-centric sources. One of the more prominent banners at the protests reads: “Don’t lie to my grandma and grandpa.” These are not the same young people who, instead of protesting against rigged elections and party-based hiring, packed their bags a decade ago and left to study and live abroad.
It’s difficult to make definitive claims without sociological research, but the spontaneous blockages of intersections and the absence of fear from insults and physical attacks indicate that there is widespread dissatisfaction in society with corruption and untouchable power holders (“that could have been my child”). Therefore, the protests spreading across Serbia are likely the biggest blow to the regime, which pathological tries to be monolithic and control everything, down to the last local community in Serbia.
The situation is obviously critical, as, in addition to the paid thugs from public enterprises, the role of provocateurs and aggressors at the protests is now taken on by party officials, local government members, and state company employees. They are the hard core of the regime because if the worst comes to pass, for example, a new “October 5th,” the perpetrators of high corruption and crime will immediately switch sides.
However, the situation is far from revolutionary, although President Vučić and his circle instinctively repeat during the protests that there will be no “colored revolutions” in Serbia.
A Charismatic Leader is Needed
At this stage of the protests, the opposition is in the background, overshadowed by the emotions and banners of the students and high schoolers. Older generations acknowledge that these youth, unburdened by past experiences (wars, Kosovo, Russia), have already done more than all the opposition in a decade of struggle—they have brought back to the public discourse the vocabulary and demand for normality (conscience, solidarity, justice, honesty). This is also a phase where certain opposition politicians fade into the background, while new figures emerge or experience a sharp comeback, such as Goran Ješić, the former Deputy Prime Minister of the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina.
The political situation is calling for a new charismatic leader. Ješić is creating a new political organization with the popular tag “Solidarity,” and in the forefront of the protests for some time is provincial deputy, professor, and political scientist Radivoje Jovović from the Movement of Free Citizens. The name of Novi Sad councilor, athlete, and influencer Miša Bačulov has also been prominently featured. All three were detained during the protests and were released through demonstrations.
The crisis and the intense work of the Progressives and Vučić personally in destroying the opposition also represent an opportunity for new names to appear on the Serbian political scene. Every rebellion and revolutionary initiative should end with political articulation at the elections and in parliament.
So, is Serbia on the brink of revolution, and is it closer to a Serbian Maidan or a “colored revolution”? The difference between these two modern phenomena in the struggle against dictatorship lies in elections and violence. The peaceful overthrow of Slobodan Milošević on October 5, 2000, was in fact the first “colored revolution,” although such revolutions only began to be called that later, in Georgia (2003 “Rose Revolution”), Ukraine (2004 “Orange Revolution”), and Kyrgyzstan (2005 “Tulip Revolution”). These are characterized by a relatively peaceful process of transferring power.
It is a rule that every authoritarian government rigs elections, and that is a sufficient legitimate reason for protest and state blockade. The resolution of all the aforementioned cases in recent history was either new elections or pressure on the dictator until they left the throne.
The protests currently being held in Georgia over rigged elections are closer to the “colored revolution” scenario.
Although Putin and Russian media call the “EuroMaidan” in Ukraine a “colored revolution,” it was, however, a classic revolution from history textbooks. The reason for the protests was not the elections (although they were undemocratic), but the violence of the authoritarian government. The state applied repression, the people responded, a conflict ensued, and the dictator fled. This is how former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych ended up fleeing to Moscow in 2014.
Some Serbian opposition figures are even suggesting that the protests could lead to a Macedonian Pržina scenario, meaning negotiations for a transitional government and further supervised elections.
Stabilocracy Under Test
The Progressives are scaring Serbia with a Ukrainian scenario, and the drama will turn into tragedy and rage if any of the cars that increasingly drive into demonstrators or thugs create the 16th victim. Let’s recall, Yanukovych also sent “titushki,” criminal thugs to beat protesters during Maidan, and it all ended in a bloody confrontation.
Vučić’s regime, like Slobodan Milošević at the end of 1996 during the protest marches, still expects that students and high schoolers will freeze on the streets and in the cold halls of institutions and that by New Year’s 2025 and the holidays, they will return to their homes to have roasted meat and Russian salad. Milošević was mistaken then.
Judging by the latest statements from regime spokespeople, the ball is not dropping. There is talk of disciplining the unruly youth and citizens who protest, even with beatings if necessary. Undoubtedly, violence and repression, sooner or later, will only strengthen the protest and opposition sentiments.
What was missing during the “colored revolutions,” as well as during the Ukrainian Maidan or the Macedonian Pržina Agreement, is the West’s indifference to the current protests in Serbia. Have they already grown tired of the countless Serbian protests—from the destruction in Savamala (“Whose city? Our city!” in 2016), “Against Dictatorship” (2017), “One of 5 Million” (2018/20), to “Serbia Against Violence” (2023), and the latest protest, “Your Hands Are Bloody!”?
Journalists and associations are calling on their colleagues to pay attention to the current protest. Dictators always fear external support, and it is crucial from leading Western democracies—the EU and the U.S.
Or are the demands raised by the demonstrators for Western understanding of democracy simply too much of an internal matter for Serbia and its citizens? It seems that the main reason is the stabilocracy that the West has supported in Serbia for a decade and, in the context of the complex political situation in the world, does not plan to change it—unless the citizens of Serbia do so themselves.
Source: Al Jazeera
