⭕SOFIA, April 29 – 🟦Russia and instability in the 🟩Western Balkans remain the main threats to Bulgaria’s national security, with the risk of a new armed conflict high unless Moscow changes its aggressive policy, Bulgaria’s security and military intelligence agencies said in annual reports published on Monday.
The State Agency for National Security (SANS) said in its report, posted on the government website, that Bulgaria continues to face escalating hybrid actions, espionage, information attacks, and cyber threats that directly harm national interests.
“The Kremlin’s behaviour remains a major generator of threats to Europe and globally, directly affecting Bulgaria,” the SANS report said.
According to the agency, Russia has intensified its use of an “evolving hybrid toolkit” that includes military demonstrations, nuclear threats, intelligence and sabotage operations, economic pressure (particularly in the energy sector), disinformation campaigns, and cyberattacks.
In 2024, SANS said it had identified and expelled two Russian nationals working as illegal intelligence officers for the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), and deported a person holding dual Russian and Colombian citizenship for carrying out intelligence tasks across EU and NATO member states. A Belarusian citizen was also reported to have illegally entered a Bulgarian military unit, it added.
Nineteen foreign nationals suspected of links to Russian special services were declared persona non grata and banned from entering Bulgaria for five years.
The agency also warned of heightened risks in the Western Balkans, describing the region as a persistent zone of instability that threatens Bulgaria’s national interests.
“The instability of the Western Balkans, stimulated by external and internal factors, continues to generate risks to Bulgaria’s security and the realisation of its national interests,” SANS said.
Separately, the Military Intelligence Service reported that the war in Ukraine is turning the Black Sea into a zone of increased tension for Bulgaria, warning of risks to shipping, aviation, and critical infrastructure due to electronic warfare and attacks.
It also cited dangers from transboundary pollution caused by military actions near nuclear and oil facilities, and from Russia’s use of a “shadow fleet” to illegally export energy resources.
According to Military Intelligence, even if the war in Ukraine ends, Moscow will continue its aggressive policy. It said there was no immediate direct military threat to Bulgaria or neighbouring countries, but warned that if Russia’s current trajectory continues, the medium-term risk of new armed conflict remains high.
“The aim of each side (in the war) is to outlast the other. Signs of exhaustion of combat potential are visible, along with initial attempts to open peace negotiations,” the report said.
Military Intelligence noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goal in any negotiations would be to secure long-term legal guarantees of Russian influence in the post-Soviet space, at the expense of Ukraine’s sovereignty.
The re-election of Putin earlier this year has further consolidated Russia’s forceful approach to international relations, the report added.
Externally, the Kremlin is increasingly using hybrid tactics to create tension within the Euro-Atlantic community and influence electoral outcomes across Europe, according to Military Intelligence.
The agencies also reported a growing threat to Bulgaria’s cybersecurity and critical infrastructure. Offensive cyber operations against key systems have expanded in scope, and the risk of sabotage has risen significantly. Several incidents were recorded in 2024, although the reports did not provide specific examples.
