The European Union is expected to approve Bulgaria’s entry into the eurozone from Jan. 1, 2026, making it the 21st member of the bloc’s currency union, several EU officials told POLITICO.
The European Commission and the European Central Bank (ECB) are set to endorse Bulgaria’s bid in a convergence report to be published next Wednesday, after years of preparation and delay.
Joining the euro is expected to boost Bulgaria’s trade with other EU countries, lower transaction costs and increase Sofia’s influence in EU policymaking.
“Joining the euro will only strengthen sovereignty for Bulgaria — we will participate in the decision-making process of the ECB,” said Atanas Pekanov, a Bulgarian economist and former deputy prime minister.
Bulgaria’s lev has long been pegged to the euro, but the country has had no formal say in ECB monetary policy. Eurozone membership would give Bulgaria a seat on the ECB’s Governing Council, though its economic size — less than 1% of the eurozone’s GDP — means its voting power will remain limited.
Inflation Fears and Political Tensions
Despite institutional support, concerns persist over the potential economic impact of the transition. Analysts warn that switching to the euro may trigger a one-off spike in prices, disproportionately affecting rural and low-income households.
In recent eurozone entrants such as Slovakia, Estonia and Lithuania, price adjustments following adoption led to higher inflation in the short term, particularly for basic goods.
“Rural voters are skeptical, not because they’re euroskeptic, but because of fears over an increase in the cost of living,” Pekanov said.
Reflecting those concerns, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev recently called for a national referendum to delay the country’s euro adoption. His proposal sent shockwaves through domestic politics, though it is unlikely to succeed. Bulgaria’s constitutional court has previously ruled that such referendums are unconstitutional.
The idea has also gained little traction in parliament, where a majority of political parties support euro accession.
“It makes no sense, at a time when the nation should be confident that the introduction of the euro will only benefit the competitiveness of our economy, to introduce a debate that manipulates people and instills fear,” Prime Minister Rossen Jeliazkov said on Tuesday.
Meeting the Criteria
Bulgaria appears on track to meet the eurozone’s entry criteria, particularly on inflation — one of the main barriers so far.
To qualify, Bulgaria’s average inflation from April 2024 to April 2025 must be no more than 1.5 percentage points above that of the three lowest-inflation EU member states. These were Ireland (1.0%), Italy (1.4%) and Luxembourg (1.6%) in 2024.
Bulgaria’s inflation fell from 4.7% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024, but is forecast to rise again to 3.6% this year, partly due to an increase in VAT at the start of 2025 — still above the eurozone’s projected average of 2.1%.
If final approval is granted next year as expected, Bulgaria would become the first new eurozone member since Croatia joined in January 2023.