North Macedonia and other Western Balkan countries could face significant economic repercussions if Iran follows through on plans to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit chokepoint, analysts and officials said on Monday.
Roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil trade and one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports pass through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. Although most Western Balkan countries do not import oil directly from the Gulf region, any disruption in supply could push global crude prices above $100 per barrel, according to some forecasts.
Such a price spike would accelerate inflation, hinder economic growth, and further strain global supply chains, analysts said.
Iran’s state-run Press TV reported that the Iranian parliament had approved a measure to close the strait, though the final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council. The development triggered international concerns, with several governments reviewing contingency scenarios.
Major oil-importing countries including China, India, Japan, and South Korea would be directly impacted, but smaller economies heavily reliant on energy imports could be among the hardest hit.
“A shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would raise oil prices and have a negative, inflationary impact on North Macedonia and the region,” former Macedonian ambassador to NATO, Nano Ruzhin, told DW’s Macedonian service.
According to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data cited by CNN, around 20 million barrels of oil pass through the strait each day — approximately one-fifth of the world’s daily production.
In Serbia and North Macedonia, energy and economic experts have begun assessing the potential effects of a prolonged blockade, including price hikes for fuel and food, and a further increase in inflation. Past crises are being used as a reference point for scenario planning.
Risk of Escalation Amid Ongoing Conflict
Oil prices had already surged following Israeli airstrikes on Iran 10 days ago, with Brent crude experiencing a sharp rise. Analysts initially viewed the strikes as a peak moment before stabilization. However, a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a renewed energy crisis with global ramifications, including potential recessions, especially for import-dependent countries.
Unofficial estimates suggest such a blockade could cause fuel prices to jump by 20–30%, increase inflation, raise food costs, and reduce purchasing power in vulnerable economies.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday urged China to pressure Iran not to block the strait.
“I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call [Iran] on this issue, because they rely heavily on the Strait of Hormuz for oil supplies,” Rubio said. He warned that closing the strait would be an economic miscalculation for Iran and could prompt a strong international response.
North Macedonian Citizens Await Evacuation from Israel
As tensions remain high, 11 North Macedonian nationals are awaiting evacuation from Israel, where Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport remains closed. The country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed on Monday that all flights in and out of Israel have been suspended due to security concerns.
“A reopening is expected in the coming days depending on the security situation,” the ministry said, adding that maritime evacuation via Ashdod to Limassol remains a contingency option. As of June 22, a total of 27 citizens have requested evacuation, though not all are prepared to leave immediately.
The ministry also urged citizens to avoid travel to Middle Eastern regions with deteriorating security conditions.
What Comes Next?
Analysts say that if the U.S. strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites successfully degraded Iran’s nuclear capabilities, it might push Tehran toward diplomacy. However, if Iran escalates, other regional actors could become involved, leading to a prolonged conflict with wider economic and humanitarian consequences.
“No one expects a global war, but targeted attacks on U.S. interests, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure — where U.S. bases are located — remain plausible,” said Ruzhin.
He suggested Iran might opt for a “calibrated response” — strong enough to be felt, but restrained enough to avoid full-scale war. “Limited retaliation against the U.S., followed by symbolic strikes on Israel, could precede a return to negotiations.”
Ruzhin warned that Iran’s leadership currently appears to be operating in “survival mode,” similar to the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. He did not rule out the possibility that Tehran could allow Donald Trump a symbolic diplomatic victory in exchange for deflecting public anger toward Israel.
IAEA Holds Emergency Meeting
Meanwhile, attention has shifted to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which held an emergency board meeting in Vienna on Monday following the strikes.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said Iranian regulators had reported no elevated radiation levels outside the impacted nuclear facilities.
“There is no expected health or environmental risk beyond the targeted zones,” Grossi said.
Pre-strike data indicated that the targeted facilities contained enriched uranium at various levels, raising the risk of radioactive and chemical contamination within the affected sites.
Grossi emphasized that the cessation of hostilities is necessary for IAEA inspections to resume in Iran. “Continued and timely information exchange with Iran is essential for nuclear safety and security,” he said.
Iranian authorities stated there is no immediate threat to residents near Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow — the three locations targeted in the strikes.
“Life can continue as normal,” Tehran officials said.