By : Enver Robelli
German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung, along with public broadcasters WDR and NDR, reported today that the German Army (Bundeswehr) and the Federal Intelligence Service (BND) have conducted a new assessment of the security situation in Europe. According to Süddeutsche Zeitung, this classified analysis is currently circulating within security circles in Berlin.
In their latest report, analysts paint a bleak picture of Moscow’s ambitions. Russia perceives itself as being in a systemic conflict with the West and is prepared to pursue its imperial goals through military force—even beyond Ukraine. While the document states there are currently no signs of an “imminent confrontation between Russia and NATO,” it also warns that by the end of the decade, Russia is likely to have established all the necessary conditions to wage a “large-scale conventional war.”
Despite more than three years of war in Ukraine, Russia’s military capabilities are not being significantly weakened. In fact, the report suggests that—despite Western sanctions—Russia is managing to prepare militarily in such a way that it could soon be in a position to launch an attack on a NATO member state. The Kremlin is not only able to compensate for its substantial losses in personnel and equipment but is also advancing its armament efforts. According to the assessment, Russia’s war economy is producing more than what is currently needed for the conflict in Ukraine. Moreover, President Vladimir Putin has ordered the expansion of Russia’s armed forces to up to 1.5 million troops by 2026, Süddeutsche Zeitung reports, citing the military and intelligence document.
The newspaper further notes that BND President Bruno Kahl had already warned last November that his agency viewed a potential Russian attack on a NATO state within the next few years as a realistic threat. According to Kahl, senior military officials in Moscow question whether NATO would remain united in the face of such an assault. As a result, he argues, the likelihood of Russia testing this scenario—perhaps through a limited attack on the Baltic states—is increasing.
