Bosnia and Herzegovina is facing its most severe political crisis since the end of the 1992–1995 war, with Serb nationalist leader Milorad Dodik at the centre of growing tensions that are testing the country’s fragile post-war constitutional order.
A state court in Sarajevo has issued an arrest warrant for Dodik, the president of Bosnia’s Serb-dominated Republika Srpska (RS) entity, accusing him of attempting to undermine the constitutional order. However, authorities have so far refrained from acting on the warrant, citing serious security risks. Dodik is constantly surrounded by heavily armed bodyguards, raising fears that any attempt to detain him could trigger a violent confrontation between state and entity-level police forces.
Over the past year, Dodik has pursued policies widely seen as a direct challenge to Bosnia’s sovereignty. RS authorities have adopted legislation rejecting the jurisdiction of key national institutions, including the judiciary and state police, effectively seeking to assert the entity’s autonomy and nullify the authority of central institutions within its territory. International officials, including High Representative Christian Schmidt, have called these moves a “coup attempt.” Schmidt accused Dodik of turning Republika Srpska into a “personal fortress,” shielded by entity security structures.
Tensions escalated further after Dodik defied a court summons and visited Moscow, where he held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The visit came amid a diplomatic row involving German state secretary for Europe Anna Lührmann, who faced threats from RS officials and was declared persona non grata in the entity—despite Dodik lacking the authority to do so. The move was widely viewed as retaliation for EU sanctions imposed on Dodik by Germany and Austria, which include travel bans.
In response to rising instability, the European Union in March deployed an additional 400 troops to Bosnia under the EUFOR peacekeeping mission, bringing the total to around 1,500 soldiers. Despite calls from Bosnian officials for EUFOR to enforce the arrest warrant against Dodik, Brussels has declined, saying such actions fall outside the mission’s mandate.
The Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina has since suspended RS’s controversial judicial law, but political tensions remain high. Dodik has already been sentenced to one year in prison and removal from office, pending appeal. His continued freedom highlights the limited capacity of Bosnia’s judiciary and the vulnerability of state institutions in the face of open defiance by separatist leaders.
High Representative Schmidt has said that a political shift within Republika Srpska is key to resolving the crisis. According to him, support for Dodik is weakening, and his attempts to rally public backing through mass rallies have largely failed. A stronger opposition willing to challenge Dodik’s leadership could pave the way for stabilization. Until then, however, the question remains whether the international community can safeguard peace and uphold the rule of law in a country still burdened by ethnic divisions and foreign influence—particularly from Russia.
As the European Union grapples with multiple challenges, Bosnia and Herzegovina continues to serve as a litmus test for the bloc’s ability to maintain stability in its own backyard. Without genuine political reform and the restoration of functional governance, Bosnia’s EU membership aspirations will remain distant—while the spectre of renewed conflict looms larger.
