The U.S. sanctions on the Serbian Oil Industry (NIS), owned by Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom, are seen as the beginning of the end for Serbia’s balancing act between Russia and the West, writes Danas.rs, an independent media outlet in Serbia.
Experts suggest this move may push Serbia closer to the Western sphere of influence. However, such a shift in foreign policy is unlikely to be overt or immediate, as public opinion still heavily favors ties with Russia and China, especially among voters of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).
A Subtle Shift Towards the West
Aleksandar Ivković, a researcher at the Center for Contemporary Politics and editor at European Western Balkans, argues that Serbia’s government will not publicly announce a pivot to the West. Instead, it may continue to maintain the appearance of neutrality to appease domestic public opinion, while discreetly aligning with Western interests.
“Serbia has already made moves in this direction, such as adjusting its stance on lithium mining, distancing itself from Russia over Ukraine, and accepting the Ohrid Agreement with Kosovo,” Ivković said. He added that non-alignment with Western sanctions against Russia serves as a façade to mask these shifts and manage domestic sentiment.
Russia’s Waning Influence
Career diplomat Srećko Đukić considers the sanctions on NIS a clear indicator of Serbia’s reduced dependence on Russia. However, he points out that Moscow will resist the sale of NIS, as it represents Russia’s last significant foothold in Serbia.
“Moscow loses both political influence and financial gain with NIS’s downfall,” Đukić explained, adding that Serbia has the sovereign right to nationalize foreign-owned assets, including NIS.
The Kosovo Question
The sanctions on NIS have revived debates about Russia’s role in protecting Serbia’s position on Kosovo. Analyst Dragomir Anđelković suggests President Aleksandar Vučić is seeking to provoke Moscow into altering its stance on Kosovo, potentially paving the way for Serbia to normalize relations with NATO and the EU.
“Vučić may be attempting to shift blame for Serbia’s policy failures onto Russia,” Anđelković stated, accusing the Serbian government of betraying national interests under Western pressure.
A Path Towards NATO?
Vojislav Mihailović, leader of POKS, believes the sanctions on NIS are part of a broader Western strategy to fully integrate Serbia into the NATO framework. He predicts that Serbia will eventually impose sanctions on Russia, signaling a definitive alignment with the West.
“This government has long accepted Western conditions, including the expulsion of Russian interests from NIS. NATO membership will likely be presented as the only viable option,” Mihailović said.
Choice for Serbia
Pavle Grbović, president of the Freedom and Justice Party, views the sanctions as a chance for Serbia to correct its past mistakes in foreign policy. However, he emphasizes that the current administration is only capable of making sound decisions under external pressure.
“The sanctions offer an opportunity to mitigate the damage caused by poor policy decisions, but it is essential not to credit an authoritarian regime for what is ultimately a reaction to a crisis,” Grbović stated.
As Serbia navigates the implications of these sanctions, the broader question remains: Is this the end of Serbia’s long-standing policy of balancing between East and West? The answer will depend on how the government manages its relations with Moscow and the West in the coming months.
