SKOPJE/TIVAT, June 4 (BV) – European Council President António Costa’s tour of the Western Balkans ahead of the EU–Western Balkans Summit in Tivat has revealed a new reality of European enlargement: while Brussels is once again presenting expansion as a strategic priority, the region’s countries are entering the next phase of integration from very different starting positions.
Throughout his visits to Sarajevo, Tirana, Pristina and Skopje, Costa delivered a consistent message.
“Enlargement is not merely an opportunity; it is a geostrategic necessity for Europe,” he said.
Yet behind this common rhetoric lies a vastly different outlook for each Western Balkan country.
Montenegro: Closest to Membership
Within EU institutions, Montenegro is increasingly viewed as the frontrunner of the enlargement process.
Brussels officials have repeatedly identified Podgorica as the candidate most likely to become the next EU member state. Some European diplomats privately believe Montenegro could conclude accession negotiations before the end of this decade if current reforms continue.
The symbolism of hosting this week’s EU–Western Balkans Summit in Tivat is therefore significant. It reflects Montenegro’s status as the region’s most advanced candidate and serves as a reminder that enlargement remains possible.
Albania: Brussels’ Success Story
The most positive messages during Costa’s tour were reserved for Albania.
In Tirana, the European Council president praised Albania for meeting the interim benchmarks under the crucial “Fundamentals” cluster, describing the recent Intergovernmental Conference as recognition of the country’s reform efforts.
Costa emphasized that Albania is already benefiting from gradual integration into the European single market through participation in the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA), reduced roaming costs and access to various EU programs.
Unlike previous years, when Albania and North Macedonia advanced together through the accession process, Brussels increasingly views Albania as moving on a separate and faster track.
European officials see Albania as one of the clearest examples that reforms can produce tangible progress.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Running Out of Time
Costa adopted a markedly different tone in Sarajevo.
He openly warned Bosnian leaders that the country had already lost €108 million in EU funding due to reform delays and could lose an additional €373 million if political deadlock continues.
The message was direct: Bosnia and Herzegovina must adopt the remaining judicial reforms, appoint a chief negotiator and implement the Reform Agenda if it wants to unlock EU growth and reform funds.
Unlike North Macedonia, where the main obstacle is a political dispute over constitutional amendments, Bosnia’s challenge lies in chronic institutional paralysis and the inability of political actors to agree on a common European agenda.
For Brussels, Bosnia increasingly represents a test of whether enlargement can succeed in a deeply fragmented political system.
Kosovo: Europe Depends on Dialogue
In Pristina, Costa praised Kosovo’s near-complete alignment with EU foreign and security policy positions.
However, he also reiterated Brussels’ long-standing position that normalization of relations with Serbia remains essential for Kosovo’s European future.
“Normalization is crucial for the European future of both Kosovo and Serbia,” Costa stressed.
He called on political leaders to overcome partisan divisions and treat European integration as a national objective rather than a political battleground.
Despite strong support for Kosovo’s European perspective, Brussels continues to link progress directly to the EU-facilitated dialogue with Belgrade.
Serbia: Between Brussels and Strategic Ambiguity
Although Costa’s visit to Belgrade comes later in the tour, Serbia remains one of the most complex enlargement cases.
The country has advanced further institutionally than several regional neighbors but faces growing criticism from Brussels over democratic standards, rule of law concerns and its reluctance to align fully with EU foreign policy, particularly regarding sanctions against Russia.
European officials increasingly see Serbia’s accession path as dependent not only on reforms but also on strategic choices concerning its geopolitical orientation.
North Macedonia: The Most Sensitive Message
The clearest and politically most sensitive message of Costa’s tour was delivered in Skopje.
There were no new formulas, no alternative mechanisms and no revised negotiating framework.
Costa repeated the EU’s position that constitutional amendments remain the necessary next step before accession negotiations can move forward.
“What has been agreed remains agreed,” he said, echoing the position repeatedly expressed by Brussels since the adoption of the negotiating framework in 2022.
Notably absent was any reference to the guarantees sought by Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski’s government that no new bilateral demands would emerge after constitutional changes are adopted.
This remains the core dispute between Skopje and Brussels.
The government insists that past experiences have shown that North Macedonia repeatedly fulfilled EU requirements only to face new obstacles later. European institutions, however, argue that they cannot provide absolute guarantees because individual member states retain veto powers throughout the accession process.
As a result, North Macedonia remains the only Western Balkan candidate whose next step toward the EU is directly tied to a specific constitutional obligation that continues to divide domestic politics.
Enlargement Returns, But Not Equally
Costa’s Balkan tour demonstrates that enlargement has returned to the center of Europe’s strategic thinking.
Russia’s war against Ukraine, growing geopolitical competition and concerns over external influence in the region have pushed EU leaders to revive the enlargement agenda after years of stagnation.
Yet the tour also exposed a fundamental reality: the Western Balkans are no longer moving as a single group.
Montenegro is approaching the final stages of accession. Albania is accelerating negotiations. Kosovo and Serbia remain tied to normalization talks. Bosnia and Herzegovina struggles with internal dysfunction.
North Macedonia, meanwhile, finds itself caught between Brussels’ insistence on implementation and domestic skepticism that constitutional amendments will truly be the final condition on the road to membership.
As EU and Western Balkan leaders gather in Tivat, the central question is no longer whether the European Union wants to enlarge.
The question is whether the countries of the region can overcome their own political obstacles quickly enough to seize what Brussels increasingly describes as a historic window of opportunity.