ANKARA, May 26 (BV)— Analysts say Türkiye is emerging as one of NATO’s most influential balancing actors as divisions deepen between the United States and European allies over the future of the alliance.
The debate intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump renewed criticism of NATO, calling the alliance a “paper tiger” and suggesting Washington’s future role in the bloc was “beyond reconsideration.”
The remarks, made during an interview with Britain’s Telegraph newspaper, were widely interpreted as Trump’s strongest criticism of NATO to date.
Against this backdrop, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has intensified diplomatic messaging aimed at preserving trans-Atlantic ties before the NATO leaders summit scheduled for July 7-8 in Ankara.
During talks with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in April, Erdoğan stressed that maintaining the trans-Atlantic link remained indispensable for the alliance and called for stronger responsibility-sharing within NATO’s European pillar.
He also warned against excluding non-EU NATO members, including Türkiye, from European defense initiatives, arguing such moves would weaken collective security.
Political analyst Tolga Sakman from the Center for Diplomatic Affairs and Political Studies said Türkiye had become one of the few actors capable of communicating with both Washington and European capitals at a time of growing polarization inside NATO.
“Türkiye stands out as one of the few rational actors capable of bridging the divide,” Sakman told Daily Sabah.
Analysts argue Ankara’s geopolitical position, expanding defense industry and flexible diplomacy have elevated its strategic value within the alliance.
Ayhan Sarı, a security and foreign policy expert at the Turkish Research Foundation, said Türkiye could potentially fill part of the leadership vacuum if the United States gradually reduces its role inside NATO.
“If the United States steps back from its leadership role in NATO, an actor like Türkiye could emerge to fill part of that space,” Sarı said.
Türkiye, which joined NATO in 1952, possesses the alliance’s second-largest military and remains a key power on NATO’s southern flank.
The country also plays a central role in Black Sea security amid the Russia-Ukraine war and serves as a strategic gateway between Europe, the Middle East and Asia.
NATO officials recently highlighted Türkiye’s contribution to the alliance’s largest military exercise of the year, Steadfast Dart 2026, in which Ankara deployed more than 2,000 personnel and naval units.
Türkiye currently ranks seventh among NATO members in contributions to the alliance’s budget, with its contribution expected to rise significantly by 2030.
The Ankara summit comes at a moment of growing geopolitical uncertainty, including the Russia-Ukraine war, instability in the Middle East and renewed disputes over burden-sharing inside NATO.
Around 6,000 participants are expected to attend the summit in the Turkish capital.
U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker described Türkiye as a “model ally,” praising its long-term military contributions and defense capabilities.
“Türkiye is already present in the region, committing resources and possessing the necessary capabilities and defense industrial base,” Whitaker said.
Analysts say the summit could become a defining moment for Türkiye’s role inside NATO, especially as Ankara seeks to position itself not only as a military power but also as a diplomatic mediator between competing blocs inside the alliance.