Türkiye is increasingly framing itself as a key stabilising force in the Balkans, as questions grow over the European Union’s capacity and U.S. willingness to shape outcomes in the region, according to an analysis by Egemen Bağış.
Writing after the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, Bağış argues that power — rather than principle — has become the decisive currency in international politics, with implications for a region still grappling with unresolved disputes and institutional fragility.
“In today’s world, being right is no longer enough,” he said, adding that legitimacy without “power, capacity and strategic resolve” rarely produces outcomes — a view that reflects a broader shift away from rules-based multilateralism toward more transactional geopolitics.
EU influence under strain
The European Union remains the central long-term framework for stability in the Balkans, but its transformative leverage has weakened, Bağış said, citing enlargement fatigue and internal divisions.
Despite years of financial support and political engagement, progress in the region has been uneven. Persistent tensions between Kosovo and Serbia, governance challenges in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and a resurgence of nationalist rhetoric underscore the limits of EU influence.
European officials, including Ursula von der Leyen, have warned that failure to integrate the region could leave it exposed to competing geopolitical actors, including Türkiye, Russia and China — reflecting growing concern in Brussels about strategic drift.
A widening geopolitical vacuum
Bağış points to what he describes as a “geopolitical vacuum” created by reduced U.S. engagement and the EU’s cautious approach, arguing that such gaps rarely remain unfilled.
“When credible actors hesitate, others step in — and not all contribute to stability,” he said.
In this context, Türkiye is positioning itself as a pragmatic actor capable of engaging all sides, leveraging a mix of diplomatic channels, economic investment and historical ties across the Balkans.
Unlike more conditional Western approaches, Ankara’s strategy emphasises continuity of dialogue and flexible partnerships, analysts say — a model that can yield influence even in politically sensitive environments.
Beyond the periphery
The Balkans, long treated as Europe’s periphery, is increasingly viewed as a strategic crossroads linking energy routes, migration corridors and security dynamics.
Bağış argues that regional actors face a stark choice: shape outcomes or be shaped by them.
“No sustainable strategy for the Balkans can be built without Türkiye,” he said, framing Ankara not only as a participant but as a necessary component of any future regional architecture.
Competing narratives
The assessment reflects Ankara’s own strategic narrative, but it contrasts with the EU’s position that enlargement — despite its slow pace — remains the most credible path to lasting stability.
Brussels has also stressed that partners, including Türkiye as a candidate country, are expected to align with EU values in their regional engagement, highlighting an underlying tension between influence and norms.
As global power dynamics continue to shift, the Balkans appears set to remain a testing ground for competing visions of order — one rooted in integration and rules, the other in capacity and strategic reach. (BV)