Turkey’s long-term policy in Syria is bearing fruit following the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in late 2024, positioning Ankara as a central power broker in post-war Damascus.
The shift comes as Turkey expands its foreign policy reach beyond traditional Western alliances, seeking strategic autonomy amid a more fragmented global order. Alongside nations such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia, Turkey is increasingly acting as a “middle power” navigating a multipolar world marked by transactional diplomacy, according to a recent Foreign Affairs analysis.
Turkey had backed anti-Assad groups since the start of Syria’s civil war in 2011, even at the cost of hosting millions of refugees and enduring deteriorating security along its southern border. With Assad gone, Ankara now enjoys direct influence over opposition forces in Damascus, though regional stability remains fragile and Syria’s reconstruction uncertain.
Foreign Affairs analysis caution that Turkey’s broader foreign policy strategy—marked by hedging between global blocs—faces economic and diplomatic limits. While Ankara has cultivated ties with Russia, China, and African states, it remains tethered to Western institutions including NATO and the EU Customs Union. This dual posture has yielded mixed results.
“Multipolarity may offer opportunity, but it also brings heightened risk,” Foreign Affairs warned, noting that Turkey’s trade deficits with Russia and China, and reliance on Western capital, could expose the country to external shocks.
Turkey’s pursuit of influence in the Global South is underscored by its growing diplomatic footprint. It now has the third-largest network of embassies worldwide and has significantly expanded trade with Africa and Asia. Turkish defense exports, particularly drones, reached $7.2 billion in 2024, reflecting an assertive push for military and technological self-reliance.
Yet the benefits of this strategy remain uncertain. Foreign direct investment has lagged behind comparable middle powers, such as Vietnam. Meanwhile, Turkey’s stalled EU customs deal, visa restrictions, and exclusion from regional energy forums underscore the costs of a transactional approach that strains relations with the West.
“An effective hedging policy must start at home,” the report said, citing the need for economic diversification and institutional reforms to support Turkey’s activist foreign policy.
With the Assad regime gone, some analysts suggest Turkey could reset ties with Europe by cooperating on Syria’s reconstruction and refugee management. But that would require a shift from viewing Ankara as a buffer state to recognizing it as a strategic partner.
As global power continues to decentralize, middle powers like Turkey may shape key regional outcomes. But their success, experts warn, depends on balancing ambition with restraint.