Gentiana Gola, is a Senior Programme Officer at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA). In a exclusive interview for Balkanview.com, she discusses the state of democracy in Europe and the Western Balkans.
Gola highlights signs of democratic backsliding even among Europe’s high performers, identifies areas of concern in the Western Balkans, and points to specific developments that her team is closely monitoring in countries like North Macedonia, Serbia, and Albania.
BV: What’s the democracy outlook in Europe? What are your main findings?
The Global State of Democracy (GSoD) 2024 report has shown that although Europe continues to lead the world in democratic performance, it is also experiencing a broader trend of decline, including among high-performing countries. In Europe, more countries declined than improved, including high performing countries. The most affected areas were Rule of Law (particularly Predictable Enforcement), Civil Liberties, and Access to Justice. Effective Parliament was the only factor with more progress than decline.
Central Europe, which also includes the Western Balkan countries in our work, saw the most progress, with Montenegro leading the positive changes in this subregion. Eastern Europe follows as the second subregion with the highest number of positive changes, despite setbacks primarily due to Belarus and Russia, with nearly 60% of the progress driven by Moldova.
BV: In what areas do the Western Balkan countries have a weaker performance?
The “one-size-fits-all” approach is becoming increasingly difficult to apply in the Western Balkans, as the six countries have taken distinct paths, making it harder to generalize their trajectories or pinpoint common weaker areas under a single label. While the trajectories may differ, there are performance-based commonalities, as most scores across our indicators fall within the mid-performance range in the six Western Balkan countries.
That said, Rule of Law scores tend to be lower overall, though some countries–particularly Kosovo and Montenegro–have shown steady progress over the years. Looking at recent statistically significant changes (2018-2023), Serbia has experienced declines in Representation (Credible Elections and Effective Parliament) and Civil Liberties, whereas Montenegro has made gains in Representation (Credible Elections, Effective Parliament, Elected Government, and Free Political Parties).
In Economic Equality, the region also displays divergent trends, with Kosovo showing notable progress while Albania has seen significant declines. A similar pattern is evident in Access to Justice, where Albania experienced a significant increase between 2018 and 2023, while North Macedonia saw a substantial drop.
BV: What are some of the developments that you have monitored that you would highlight in the Western Balkans?
We continuously monitor and report on key developments as part of our monthly research for the Democracy Tracker, a publicly accessible platform that provides event-based insights on democracy and human rights trends in 173 countries. Our reports focus on events that may signal shifts in a country’s democratic performance based on our methodology and indicators. Apart from the monthly updates, each country has a dedicated profile featuring an overview of its political landscape, key challenges, and issues to watch.
As part of our research, we see a lot of dynamism in the Western Balkans, particularly on developments related to the rule of law. In North Macedonia, we have recently reported about the deadly nightclub fire in Kočani, which has triggered public outrage over alleged systemic corruption, calls for accountability, and protests. We will continue to monitor the unfolding investigations. Additionally, in North Macedonia we are watching the embezzlement and abuse of office case involving former First Deputy Prime Minister Artan Grubi, as well as the Constitutional Court’s decision to abolish ethnic balancing quotas in public administration.
In Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Republika Srpska, we have reported on the impact of the newly adopted ‘foreign agent’ law on civil society, as well as the rule-of-law concerns arising from Republika Srpska’s rejection of central government authority following the prison sentence of RS President Milorad Dodik. In the Federation entity, we recently reported about the enhanced protections for domestic violence victims, a positive step for gender equality and rule of law.
In Kosovo, our coverage has focused on the recent elections and developments related to the rule of law, particularly tensions in the Serb-majority northern municipalities.
Similarly, in Montenegro, much of our reporting revolves around rule-of-law issues, including the mass shooting in January that raised security concerns and renewed discussions on gun control. We have also covered the constitutional crisis sparked by the parliamentary dismissal of a Constitutional Court judge, as well as the sentencing of the former Supreme Court president for abuse of office–an important step toward judicial independence and anti-corruption efforts.
In Albania, we have reported on the government’s one-year ban on TikTok and its implications for free expression. Many of the country’s recent developments are also centered on rule-of-law concerns, including the Parliament’s ongoing struggle to comply with Constitutional Court rulings on the mandate of one MP, as well as high-level corruption cases. Another rapidly evolving issue we continue to monitor is Albania’s migration agreement with Italy, which involves transferring asylum seekers rescued at sea to Italian-funded detention centers in Albania.
In Serbia, our reports have covered the Novi Sad tragedy and its aftermath, including widespread protests and resignations, such as that of the Prime Minister. Similar to the nightclub fire in North Macedonia, this tragedy has fuelled public anger over alleged corruption and impunity. One difference we have seen in Serbia is greater civic activism, including student protests following the Novi Sad tragedy, demonstrations against the revived lithium-mining project, and protests over electoral fraud allegations from late 2023. Our coverage has also highlighted concerns over civil liberties, such as reports of government spyware use against journalists and activists, and the recent introduction of the ‘foreign agents’ draft law in Parliament.
