Agon Maliqi, an expert at the Atlantic Council, told KDP.MK in an interview — as reported by BalkanView — that the Balkan region largely remains at the level of hybrid regimes or so-called electoral democracies.
“Authorities may be elected by votes, but without entirely fair conditions,” Maliqi said, adding that the situation varies across countries. “The most concerning trajectory is in Serbia, where we effectively have a captured state.” On the other hand, he pointed out that countries like Kosovo are making progress, though these achievements remain fragile in the face of risks of backsliding and authoritarian tendencies. According to him, “What continues to be lacking is the culture of independent institutions and the rule of law.”
“The external compass for Western Balkans’ integration has weakened,” Maliqi noted, explaining that the EU accession process once served as a guide for building states based on liberal democracy and human rights. “This external magnet has weakened over the years, revealing the region’s fragility and weak democratic culture.”
While the countries formally remain oriented toward the EU, Maliqi emphasized that alternative populist, sovereigntist, and ethnocentric ideologies are gaining increasing support. “This is particularly pronounced at a time when Western states, which once inspired liberal democracy, are themselves facing challenges to these values.” As a result, he warned of increased democratic vulnerability in the region and the potential risk posed by populism to interethnic and regional relations.
Maliqi believes the impact is already being felt. “For now, U.S. attention is directed toward other regions due to shifting priorities, but we can expect the Balkans to become more of a battleground than a space for U.S.-EU complementarity.”
He warned that this could lead to the region’s fragmentation, encouraging divergent alignments. “U.S. focus would shift more toward economic relations, while human rights and democracy issues would be removed from the agenda,” he added, highlighting that the negative effects of reduced American support are already visible in the Balkans.
In this atmosphere, according to Maliqi, many problems could arise — but crises could also turn into opportunities. “Trump could wake up the EU to speed up European integration and play a more dynamic role.” He also stressed that U.S.-Russia dialogue, increasingly centered around Ukraine, could have broader implications for various conflict hotspots, including the Balkans. “That dialogue could have consequences for the Kosovo-Serbia dispute.”
“Overall, I believe the extremes opposing the liberal consensus, liberal values, and institutions like the EU and NATO are strengthening, and in most countries, the right is gaining more support,” Maliqi said.
He pointed out that rebellion against dominant norms has pushed the entire political spectrum toward extremes. “The results of the elections in Germany demonstrated this, where traditional parties lost votes to both the far left and the far right.”
From a security perspective, Maliqi noted that there are significant differences between various right-wing movements. “Although there seems to be consensus on migration, there are fundamental differences in security and foreign policies regarding Russia.” He cited Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni as an example, stating that she is not similar to Austria’s far-right in this regard.
Maliqi warned that populism generally ignores independent institutions and international organizations, seeking to “return sovereignty to the people” from bodies such as the courts or international treaties, which are viewed as illegitimate. “In this context, populism has seriously undermined liberal democracy and the international liberal order.”
“As a region, we largely remain at the level of hybrid regimes or electoral democracies, where authorities may be elected by votes, but without entirely equal conditions,” Maliqi assessed. According to him, the situation is not identical in every country. “The most negative trajectory is in Serbia, where we effectively have a captured state.”
He acknowledged that some countries, like Kosovo, have made progress, but stressed that these achievements remain fragile in the face of risks of regression and leaders’ authoritarian impulses. “The culture of independent institutions and the rule of law continues to be lacking,” Maliqi concluded.
