Serbia has found itself among the countries most affected by U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariffs, with an imposed rate of 38% on Serbian goods. This is one of the highest rates in Europe and exceeds those placed on other Balkan nations, highlighting the U.S. administration’s assessment that Serbia imposes significant trade barriers on American products.
Economist Gordana Bulatović stated that these tariffs could have multiple negative consequences, estimating potential losses of €135-175 million annually, or around 0.3-0.4% of Serbia’s GDP. This could also threaten up to 7,000 jobs in affected sectors.
Economic Impact on Serbia
The new tariffs will likely reduce demand for Serbian products in the U.S. by a third. As an example, a product priced at €100 in Serbia will become €38 more expensive for American buyers, pushing consumers toward competitors from countries with lower tariffs.
Furthermore, these tariffs will impact Serbia indirectly. Approximately 60% of Serbian exports go to the European Union, where goods will now face U.S. tariffs of 20%. This could reduce the competitiveness of Serbian semi-finished products used in European-made goods intended for the U.S. market.
Industries at Risk
Several key Serbian industries may suffer due to the tariffs. The metals industry could lose about €27 million annually, while the automotive sector, already in a vulnerable position, might face losses of around €45 million. The electrical equipment, machinery, agriculture, and rubber industries are also projected to lose millions of euros in export revenue.
Political Motivations and Reactions
These measures are seen by some as politically motivated, with analysts suggesting that Trump is using trade as leverage. Economist Ljubodrag Savić pointed out the discrepancies in tariff rates between countries like Montenegro and Albania, which face lower rates, compared to Serbia. He speculated that the tariffs could be a push for Serbia to align more closely with U.S. policies, including sanctions on Russia.
Serbia’s Chamber of Commerce expressed confusion over the 38% tariff, calling it an unfair and drastic penalty. There is, however, room for diplomatic negotiations, similar to the delay of U.S. sanctions on Serbia’s oil industry (NIS).
The new tariffs come as part of Trump’s broader trade policy, which has sparked concerns in Europe and China, both of which have indicated plans to respond.
The full economic impact on Serbia remains uncertain, but experts predict it could be significant, especially if these tariffs remain in place long-term.
