Serbia’s student-led electoral victory has ended 14 years of dominance by Aleksandar Vučić’s ruling party, but the political battle is far from over. While European newspapers hail the result as a blow to authoritarian politics, allies of the former government warn of economic instability, tensions with Russia and concessions over Kosovo.
BELGRADE, Oct. 27 (BalkanView) – Serbia’s election upset has triggered a debate over the country’s political future, with analysts divided over whether the student-led movement’s parliamentary victory will usher in democratic reforms or a period of instability with consequences across the Western Balkans.
The Student List won approximately 140 seats in Serbia’s 250-member parliament in Sunday’s snap election, ending the 14-year dominance of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), led by Aleksandar Vučić.
According to results reported by Serbian media on Tuesday, the Student List secured 52.65% of the vote, compared with 39.22% for Vučić’s United Serbia alliance.
Vučić conceded defeat on election night and said his political movement would continue its activities in opposition.
The result has drawn sharply contrasting reactions from political commentators, international media and neighbouring countries, particularly over Serbia’s future relations with the European Union, Russia, Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
European newspapers see a defeat for Putin and a warning to Brussels
Several European newspapers portrayed the election as a setback for Russian President Vladimir Putin and a challenge to the European Union’s longstanding approach to Serbia.
According to a review of European press coverage published by Serbia’s Beta news agency, Germany’s Die Zeit argued that the students’ victory should not be interpreted as a success for EU governments.
The newspaper criticised European leaders for maintaining close relations with Vučić despite concerns over democratic standards, arguing that they had prioritised stability over accountability.
It noted that the Serbian protest movement had mobilised around demands for institutional reform without embracing the EU’s political establishment.
Britain’s Financial Times described the election as a political earthquake whose effects could extend beyond Serbia.
The newspaper suggested that the result could create opportunities to restore democratic checks and balances, revive Serbia’s stalled EU accession process and improve relations with neighbouring countries.
Greece’s Naftemporiki highlighted the students’ ability to transform public anger over the Novi Sad railway station tragedy into an organised electoral movement.
The newspaper argued that the movement’s decentralised leadership had made it more difficult for the authorities to isolate individual opponents or portray the protests as driven by personal political ambitions.
European commentary also drew comparisons with the electoral defeat of Viktor Orbán in Hungary earlier this year, suggesting that the Serbian result could have implications for Russia’s political influence in Central and Southeastern Europe.
Vučić’s supporters warn of economic and geopolitical risks
Political figures sympathetic to Vučić offered a sharply different interpretation.
Marketing consultant Nebojša Krstić told the Serbian newspaper Politika that the election result could lead to significant changes in Serbia’s foreign policy and economic relations.
Krstić alleged that foreign interests had supported the student movement, describing the political upheaval as a foreign-backed operation. He provided no verifiable evidence for that claim in the published interview.
He predicted that a student-backed government could introduce sanctions against Russia and receive faster progress in EU accession negotiations in return.
Krstić also warned that changes in relations with Moscow could increase Serbia’s energy costs, particularly if Russian gas prices rose.
He argued that higher energy prices could affect industrial investment, employment and household living standards.
Political philosopher Dragoljub Kojčić, also speaking to Politika, praised Vučić for acknowledging defeat and warned that the new majority could weaken Serbia’s position on Kosovo and Republika Srpska.
He suggested that disagreements over foreign policy and economic management could lead to further political instability and potentially new elections.
His comments reflected concerns among supporters of the outgoing ruling party rather than established plans of the Student List.
Could Serbia experience political reconciliation?
Other analysts see an opportunity to reduce the political divisions that have characterised Serbian society.
Political scientist Aleksandar Ivković told N1 television that the election could mark the beginning of a period of social recovery.
He said political disagreements had damaged relationships among friends and families, particularly during nearly two years of protests following the Novi Sad railway station disaster.
Ivković argued that a change of government could help reduce the intensity of those divisions.
He also credited the Student List’s final campaign activities with mobilising undecided voters.
The movement’s success, he suggested, was not simply the result of declining support for the SNS but also reflected its ability to attract citizens seeking a political alternative.
However, reconciliation could prove difficult.
The SNS remains a substantial political force, with more than 100 parliamentary seats projected, while the new majority will inherit a deeply polarised political environment.
Montenegro expects better relations with Belgrade
The election result has generated cautious optimism in Montenegro, where relations with Serbia have frequently been affected by disputes over national identity, political influence and regional policy.
Political analyst Stefan Đukić told Montenegro’s public broadcaster RTCG that he expected relations between the two countries to improve following the change of government.
He argued that Vučić’s political rhetoric had often contributed to tensions by portraying Montenegro as hostile to Serbian interests.
Đukić said he did not expect that approach to continue under a student-backed administration.
He also noted that politicians from several Montenegrin parties had expressed support for the Student List before the election.
Analyst Aleksandar Ćuković similarly predicted more stable and predictable relations.
He said Montenegro’s NATO membership and progress towards EU accession had already reduced its vulnerability to political developments in Serbia.
Ćuković suggested that the election could send a wider regional message that long-established political structures were not immune to electoral defeat.
Montenegrin President Jakov Milatović and Prime Minister Milojko Spajić have congratulated the Student List, expressing hopes for a new phase in bilateral relations.
Kosovo and Bosnia remain major tests
Despite expectations of political change, Serbia’s relations with Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina remain among the most sensitive issues facing the incoming government.
Vučić’s political allies have warned that the new administration could adopt a more accommodating position towards Kosovo, including implementation of commitments made during the EU-mediated dialogue.
However, no evidence has been presented that the Student List intends to recognise Kosovo’s independence or fundamentally revise Serbia’s constitutional position.
The movement’s detailed foreign policy agenda has yet to be translated into government policy.
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the election has prompted questions about Serbia’s future relationship with Republika Srpska and its political leadership.
Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik congratulated the Student List despite his longstanding political alliance with Vučić.
Analysts will be watching whether Belgrade maintains the same level of political support for Dodik or adopts a different approach towards Bosnia’s central institutions.
Any major change would have implications for regional stability and relations with the EU.
The EU faces its own credibility test
Serbia’s political transition also presents a challenge for Brussels.
For years, EU leaders have worked with Vučić as a central figure in regional diplomacy, particularly in negotiations with Kosovo.
Critics have argued that this approach placed excessive emphasis on stability while failing to respond firmly to concerns about democratic institutions and media freedom.
The Student List’s victory could create an opportunity to rebuild relations around institutional reform and democratic accountability.
However, the absence of a conventional party structure and a clearly identified prime minister introduces uncertainty over the movement’s ability to deliver rapid reforms.
The new parliamentary majority will need to establish a government, define its foreign policy and demonstrate that it can translate protest demands into functioning institutions.
A movement without a conventional leader
The Student List emerged from protests following the November 2024 collapse of a railway station canopy in Novi Sad, which killed 16 people.
The disaster became a symbol of alleged corruption and institutional negligence.
Students organised blockades, demonstrations and marches, eventually developing a nationwide political movement.
Rather than fielding students as parliamentary candidates, the movement selected academics, professionals and public figures.
Among its prominent candidates are cardiologist Ilija Srdanović, former central bank governor Dejan Šoškić, former basketball player Dejan Bodiroga and actor Tihomir Stanić.
The movement has not formally announced who will lead the next government.
Its programme includes proposals to strengthen anti-corruption investigations, reform the police, reduce political influence over public institutions and improve media independence.
The challenge will be maintaining the movement’s broad coalition while making difficult decisions on economic and foreign policy.
A new chapter, but not the end of political conflict
The election has fundamentally altered Serbia’s parliamentary balance, but it has not eliminated the political forces that shaped the country over the past decade.
Vučić and the SNS retain substantial support and are preparing to become a major opposition force.
The Student List, meanwhile, faces high public expectations after nearly two years of demonstrations demanding accountability and institutional change.
The transition could influence political developments across the Western Balkans, particularly in countries where longstanding governing parties face criticism over corruption and democratic standards.
For Serbia, the immediate challenge is to turn a decisive electoral victory into stable government.
Whether the country experiences democratic renewal, prolonged political confrontation or a combination of both will depend on the decisions of its new leaders and the response of the opposition.
The election has demonstrated that Serbia’s political order can change through the ballot box.
The more difficult question is what kind of political order will replace it.