Türkiye’s geopolitical position gives it a critical role in the upcoming Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul, Dutch historian and Russia expert Hubert Smeets said on Tuesday.
Speaking to Anadolu Agency, Smeets – a veteran journalist who has reported from both Moscow and Kyiv – said Ankara’s ties with Moscow and its leverage through control of the Bosphorus Strait positioned it as a uniquely influential mediator.
“Türkiye’s ability to challenge Russia by closing the Bosphorus, a move it has never exercised, is a significant source of diplomatic leverage,” Smeets said.
Symbolic Weight of Putin’s Presence
Smeets cast doubt on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attendance at the Istanbul talks, saying his absence would allow the Kremlin to deny or walk back early outcomes.
“My expectation that Putin will personally participate is very low,” he said. “If he comes, it means acknowledging talks with someone he’s refused to recognize as Ukraine’s legitimate president. For years, Moscow has portrayed the Kyiv government as neo-Nazi and illegitimate.”
Still, Smeets said that if both delegations meet in Istanbul and Putin is present, it would be “a serious indicator” of potential progress toward a ceasefire.
Türkiye Seen Differently from the West
Smeets argued that Istanbul offers a more acceptable venue for Moscow than European capitals like Berlin or London.
“For Russia, Europe is both the main enemy and the main target,” he said. “Since the Congress of Vienna, Russian foreign policy has operated on the principle that there can be no peace in Europe without Russia. Türkiye is seen differently – not as a threat like Europe.”
While Türkiye is a NATO member, Smeets said the Kremlin does not perceive it as an adversary in the same way as it views the West. He described Türkiye as a “serious military and industrial power” that plays a pivotal role in the Black Sea region.
Ukraine’s Strategic Interest in Türkiye
Türkiye is also key to Ukraine, Smeets noted, not only because of its regional influence but due to its control over access to the Black Sea.
“For Ukraine, the Black Sea is even more crucial than it is for Russia in military and commercial terms. It’s Ukraine’s only maritime access,” he said.
Lessons from 2022 Istanbul Talks
Smeets reflected on the March 2022 peace talks in Istanbul, which were abruptly halted. He said that although Moscow later claimed a compromise had been near, deep disagreements had surfaced at the time.
“One key issue was the monitoring of any ceasefire. Ukraine insisted on Türkiye’s participation as an observer. Russia rejected this outright, proposing Belarus instead,” he said. “The other unresolved issue was the no-fly zone.”
He added that Ukraine was in a significantly weaker position during those talks, with the Russian military still near Kyiv and the full scale of its military potential yet to be realized.
“The release of information about war crimes in Bucha during the same period also hardened Kyiv’s stance,” he said.
Today, Smeets concluded, Ukraine enters negotiations from a stronger footing compared to 2022, although the political and military dynamics remain highly volatile.