Russia is attempting to destabilise the Western Balkans as a way to gain leverage over the West and extract concessions on Ukraine, according to a new report by the U.S.-based Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI).
Unlike its direct military aggression in Ukraine, Moscow is employing more subtle tactics in southeastern Europe, including disinformation campaigns and psychological operations, the think-tank said in an analysis published this week.
“Russia’s involvement in Eastern Europe has garnered greater attention since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022,” the report noted. “In the Western Balkans, Russia’s approach is less about territorial conquest and more about exploiting instability for geopolitical gain.”
The report accuses Russia of forging close ties with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and supporting Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik to stir tensions in Serbia-Kosovo relations and within Bosnia & Herzegovina.
“If Russia can stir up chaos at Europe’s southeastern edge, it can offer to de-escalate the situation in exchange for concessions from NATO, possibly regarding Ukraine,” the FPRI said. “This creates a win-win scenario for Moscow: either NATO and the EU appear powerless or are forced to engage with Russia diplomatically.”
Rising tensions in the Balkans could further strain NATO unity, particularly if conflict erupts in Kosovo, whose independence remains unrecognised by several NATO members, the report said.
The Kremlin is also using the Balkans to justify its actions in Ukraine. “Russia has claimed that if NATO was right to protect Kosovo from Serbia, it has the same right to defend ethnic Russians in Crimea and eastern Ukraine,” FPRI said, calling the argument a form of diplomatic “whataboutism.”
The report warns that renewed violence in the region would divert Western focus from Ukraine and create operational challenges for NATO.
Russia is also capitalising on the regional media landscape. Outlets such as Sputnik and RT continue to operate in Serbia, where their narratives are often picked up by local media. Disinformation campaigns include false claims that Ukraine attacked Russia in 2022 and allegations of U.S.-run biolabs in Serbia.
“Russia also leverages social media platforms, especially Telegram, to spread its influence,” the report added.
According to FPRI, Russia’s influence is not limited to Serbia, Kosovo, and Bosnia. It views NATO member Montenegro as a weak link in the alliance’s southern flank and seeks to project power into the Adriatic Sea.
The think-tank urged Western governments to adopt stronger measures, including enhanced sanctions and counter-disinformation strategies, to counter Russia’s influence in the region.