The final ruling against Milorad Dodik, President of Republika Srpska (RS), is expected by the end of this week at the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The first-instance verdict, delivered six months ago, sentenced Dodik to one year in prison and banned him from holding public office for six years, over his refusal to comply with decisions by Christian Schmidt, the EU-appointed High Representative, whose authority RS institutions reject.
Dodik’s trial has stirred significant political debate domestically. Some expect the appeals court to overturn or mitigate the sentence; others anticipate confirmation of the original verdict. The verdict’s outcome is widely seen as a potential turning point for political stability in RS and BiH.
Political analyst Ivana Marić says for local media the ruling will inevitably leave both supporters and detractors dissatisfied in the short term, likely intensifying political tensions initially. “Long term, it is positive to have the matter finally resolved, one way or another,” she said. Marić added that the key question is whether Dodik will retain his political position. If the ban on his political activity is upheld, it could trigger calls for early RS presidential elections and renewed political turmoil.
Another analyst, Tanja Topić, noted that the prolonged legal process has fueled widespread suspicion over behind-the-scenes political agreements and the role of the international community. “Dodik’s cooperation with the court and the lifting of arrest warrants raised questions and conspiracy theories involving local politicians, intelligence agencies, and international actors,” she said for local media.
Topić warned that an acquittal stemming from a possible political deal would be seen as a blow to the judiciary’s independence and a victory for Dodik, potentially undermining the international community’s influence in BiH. This could embolden RS politicians to pursue their agenda more aggressively, increasing political uncertainty.
Conversely, confirmation of the initial verdict would likely deepen divisions and instability, depending on how RS’s political leadership responds.
The ruling follows ongoing investigations into Dodik and other RS leaders for alleged attempts to undermine BiH’s constitutional order. After initial arrest warrants were issued, Dodik, RS Prime Minister Radovan Višković, and RS Parliamentary Speaker Nenad Stevandić recently appeared voluntarily before BiH judicial authorities, leading to the lifting of those warrants.
As the country awaits the court’s decision, questions remain whether the verdict will ease political tensions or further inflame them.