SOFIA, August 7 (BV) – Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria maintains a commanding lead over its political rivals after the government’s first 100 days, but a majority of Bulgarians are critical of its foreign policy, according to a new Gallup International Balkan poll.
Progressive Bulgaria would receive 42.3% of the vote if parliamentary elections were held now, more than three times the support of its nearest rival, GERB-SDS, which stands at 12%, according to the nationally representative survey conducted between July 24 and Aug. 4.
We Continue the Change is third with 7.6%, followed by the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) at 7% and Democratic Bulgaria at 6.3%.
Revival stands at 4.8%, while the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) has 3.5%.
Gallup said Progressive Bulgaria’s support has remained broadly stable since the previous parliamentary election and that, at the current level, the party would secure an absolute majority when parliamentary seats are distributed.
The findings underline Radev’s continued dominance of Bulgarian politics following his transition from the presidency to party politics and the premiership.
However, the survey reveals a potentially significant vulnerability for his government: foreign policy.
A total of 52% of respondents expressed criticism of the government’s foreign-policy course.
Of those surveyed, 33.5% said the government had failed to strike the necessary balance between Bulgaria’s international commitments and domestic public sentiment, while another 18.5% said Sofia was sending contradictory signals to its allies and international partners.
By comparison, 16.7% described strict adherence to Bulgaria’s commitments to the European Union and NATO as the defining feature of the government’s foreign policy, while 15% said the government was firmly defending national interests and sovereignty.
Another 15% said they did not know how to characterise the government’s foreign policy, suggesting that a significant part of the electorate has yet to develop a clear perception of Radev’s international positioning.
The results present an unusual political picture: Radev and his government retain relatively strong domestic approval while voters remain considerably more sceptical about the direction of foreign policy.
The government has an approval rating of 42%, compared with 33.6% disapproval, giving it a positive balance of 8.4 percentage points. Almost a quarter of respondents, 24.4%, said they had yet to form an opinion.
Radev personally commands 43.2% trust, compared with 38.7% distrust.
President Iliana Iotova performs even better and is the country’s most trusted political figure. She has the confidence of 48.4% of respondents, while 29.2% say they distrust her.
Institutional confidence remains much weaker when it comes to parliament.
Only 20.2% of Bulgarians say they trust the National Assembly, compared with 57.5% who distrust it, although Gallup said confidence in parliament had improved compared with the previous period.
The poll suggests that Bulgaria’s political landscape remains highly concentrated around Progressive Bulgaria, with the opposition fragmented among several parties far behind Radev’s formation.
At the same time, the foreign-policy numbers could become increasingly important as Bulgaria navigates its commitments to the EU and NATO alongside domestic divisions over international security and the country’s geopolitical direction.
Gallup International Balkan interviewed 821 Bulgarian adults by telephone between July 24 and Aug. 4. The survey used quotas for age, gender, education and type of settlement and has a maximum margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The agency said the poll was financed from its own resources.