Oil prices climbed on Thursday as key deadlines related to Serbia’s oil company NIS approached, with uncertainty persisting over whether the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) will grant last-minute licence extensions.
NIS’s operational licence expires on March 20, after the company requested an extension from OFAC on March 13. A separate deadline of March 24 has been set for an agreement on the sale of the company’s Russian stake.
The developments come amid a broader global oil supply crunch driven by conflict in the Middle East, alongside regional disruptions after Ukraine halted oil transit to Hungary from Russia, contributing to upward pressure on prices.
In response, Serbia’s government on Thursday extended a ban on exports of oil and petroleum products used for motor fuels until April 2, aiming to shield consumers and businesses from rising global prices, Mining and Energy Minister Dubravka Đedović said.
Authorities will also release 40,000 tonnes of diesel from state reserves in the coming days as an additional market-stabilising measure, she added. The government recently cut fuel excise duties by 20%.
President Aleksandar Vučić said the situation marked one of the most challenging moments for energy security in Europe and globally, adding that he had discussed possible joint responses with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
Market participants remain focused on short-term crisis management rather than the sale of NIS, said Belgrade-based stock analyst Branislav Jorgić. Hungary’s MOL has been expected to acquire the Russian stake, but Jorgić said it was unlikely that a deal would be finalised by the U.S.-imposed March 24 deadline.
“Given the geopolitical situation and the lack of communication from the parties involved, it is unlikely that the deadline will be met,” he said.
It also remains unclear whether Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC, which has reportedly been in talks with MOL, is still involved in the potential transaction.
OFAC has previously granted last-minute extensions to NIS, including one issued after MOL announced an agreement with Gazprom two months ago regarding the purchase of the Russian stake.
Serbian officials have been seeking a compromise solution that would ensure continued operations at the Pančevo refinery and potentially allow Serbia to increase its stake in NIS by an additional 5%.
The Pančevo refinery resumed production on Jan. 18 after nearly two months of downtime caused by a shortage of crude oil following U.S. sanctions imposed on NIS in October over its majority Russian ownership.
Production had been halted in early December due to insufficient crude supplies.