North Macedonia’s transport sector is likely to be the first hit by rising oil prices following U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran, economists said, warning of broader inflationary pressures in the import-dependent Balkan economy.
The European Union has asked member states to share assessments of oil supply security by the end of Monday and is considering convening an ad hoc meeting of its Oil Coordination Group later this week, Reuters reported.
North Macedonia, which imports around two-thirds of its energy needs, is vulnerable to external shocks as oil prices are embedded in nearly all goods and services, said Ivana Bećiragić, a professor of international economics at the International Balkan University.
“For the Macedonian economy, transport will be the first sector under pressure, but negative consequences can be expected for domestic companies and citizens, whose purchasing power is already fragile after years of global economic turbulence,” Bećiragić told Radio Free Europe.
She added that under such conditions both the European Central Bank and North Macedonia’s central bank may adopt a more cautious stance on potential interest rate cuts, favouring a restrictive approach that could weigh on growth.
Konstantin Dimitrov, a retired professor at the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering in Skopje, said a further deterioration of the situation in Iran could have significant economic repercussions.
“If transport costs rise, it will be a strong blow to living standards. Every product that reaches the market becomes more expensive in proportion to fuel prices,” Dimitrov said.
He said oil prices were rising due to expectations of reduced output among major regional producers and the partial or possible full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade passes.
“If global energy supplies fall by 10–20% while demand remains, prices will follow. Production cannot be increased overnight, which means the situation could last and even worsen,” he said.
President Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova said after a Security Council session on March 1 that there was currently no reason for concern regarding domestic energy supplies.
“We have firm assurances, institutionally and documented with data, that there is no cause for worry at this moment,” she said, noting that an interconnector with Greece was operational and that legal requirements to maintain oil reserves for 40 to 90 days had been met.
According to the State Statistical Office, North Macedonia’s total energy needs amount to 2.54 million tonnes of oil equivalent (toe), with 65.5% covered by imports.
Oil products account for 44.7% of total energy consumption, or around 1.13 million toe annually, making them the largest component of the country’s energy mix.
Final energy consumption stands at 1.86 million toe, of which transport accounts for 47.6%, underscoring its heavy reliance on oil. Households account for 26.1%, industry 16.9% and other sectors 8.4%.
Global oil prices jumped on March 2, while stocks fell and the dollar strengthened, amid expectations that the Middle East conflict could last for weeks and threaten the global economic recovery.
Brent crude rose about 10% to $79.90 a barrel after briefly topping $82, while U.S. crude climbed 8.2% to $72.64 a barrel. Gold prices gained 2.6% to $5,413 an ounce.
Oil supply could be disrupted after Iran reportedly warned tankers in the Strait of Hormuz they would not be allowed to pass, according to Germany’s dpa news agency. British maritime authorities said two vessels were struck near the key shipping route.
Investors currently expect the conflict to remain relatively contained, but uncertainty over developments in Iran and the broader region continues to pose risks to oil markets and global inflation.