U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 33% tariffs on products from North Macedonia could trigger indirect economic shocks, despite the limited volume of direct trade between the two countries, economists told Deutsche Welle.
The government of North Macedonia stated that the measure is not expected to have a significant direct impact on the economy, but a contingency plan has been prepared to manage the situation. “This is a predictable move by the American administration, which has spared no country,” the statement read.
Minimal Direct Impact, But Risks of Indirect Consequences
Although exports to the U.S. account for only about 1% of North Macedonia’s total exports, economists warn of broader consequences. “The main blow will come via the European Union, where 80% of our exports go,” said Branimir Jovanovic from the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies.
According to him, if the tariffs reduce the EU’s export performance, it will have a domino effect on North Macedonia. “This is just the beginning. We expect the EU to retaliate, which could lead to a further escalation of the trade war,” Jovanovic added.
Until now, the U.S. applied zero or low tariffs on Macedonian products. The new policy, which took effect on April 2, introduces a base tariff of 10% plus an additional 23%, placing North Macedonia among the countries with the highest tariff rates—alongside China, Russia, Iran, and Serbia.
Industrial Supply Chains and Domestic Factories Under Pressure
Marjan Petreski, university professor and economic analyst, stated that the direct impact is limited, but the indirect risks are serious. “Macedonian companies in the technological-industrial zones are part of global supply chains. The tariffs will affect parent companies, which could lead to reduced production and layoffs at home,” he warned.
He also pointed out that Trump’s policy creates a new global trade barrier. “The U.S. is undermining the trade system it originally helped build. This could result in higher prices, lower output, and job losses,” Petreski said.
Germany’s Fiscal Support Could Soften the Blow
Germany, North Macedonia’s main trading partner, recently adopted a €1 trillion fiscal package for a ten-year period. According to Jovanovic, this could cushion the blow to the German economy—and indirectly to North Macedonia’s.
“However, our projections show that GDP growth will be 0.4 percentage points lower than expected. Instead of 2.8%, we now expect growth of 2.4%,” he said, adding that the risks are mostly on the downside.
Export Growth to the U.S., But with a Narrow Structure
Exports from North Macedonia to the U.S. nearly tripled from 2015 to 2024, reaching €110 million, according to the State Statistical Office. Most of this export comes from the electrical machinery and equipment sector, followed by textiles and metals.
Despite positive trends, experts remain pessimistic. “This policy is creating a new economic reality. For countries like ours, which are deeply integrated into global financial and trade flows, it brings uncertainty and the potential for a decline in exports and investment,” Petreski concluded.
