PRISTINA, Kosovo — More than a month after Kosovo’s parliamentary elections on February 9, the country remains without a new government, as political negotiations stall and uncertainty looms. Vetëvendosje (VV), the leftist-nationalist party led by Prime Minister Albin Kurti, secured the largest share of votes—42 percent, translating to 48 seats in the 120-member Assembly. Yet, this represents a weaker performance compared to its 2021 victory, when it captured an outright majority of 50 percent and 58 seats.
While Kurti’s party won comfortably, forming a government is far from guaranteed. Opposition parties, so far, have rejected the possibility of aligning with VV, leaving the country in political limbo.
Opposition Gains and the Coalition Challenge
The Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) secured 21 percent of the vote and 24 seats, followed by the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) with 18 percent and 20 seats. The Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK), in coalition with NISMA, received 7 percent and 8 seats.
Among Kosovo’s Serb community, the Serb List—backed directly by the Serbian government—won 9 of the 10 parliamentary seats reserved for Serbs, while the remaining seat went to Nenad Rašić’s Party for Freedom, Justice, and Survival. Minority parties control 20 total seats in the Assembly.
To secure a governing majority, VV needs at least 61 votes. With opposition parties unwilling to cooperate, the government formation process is at an impasse. Experts warn that this deadlock could deepen, threatening Kosovo’s governance at a crucial geopolitical moment.
Four Possible Scenarios
Donika Emini, executive director of the CiviKos Platform and a member of the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG), sees four possible outcomes: a majority government, a fragile minority government, an opposition-led coalition against Kurti, or prolonged political crisis.
“A coalition between Vetëvendosje and the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) would reach the necessary 61 votes, and even the 80 votes required for next year’s presidential election,” Emini said. “However, political realities make such an alliance highly unlikely.”
Another possibility is a minority government, where VV partners with smaller parties such as NISMA, whose leader, Fatmir Limaj, has expressed openness to collaboration. But Emini warns this option would be “a short-term gamble,” vulnerable to collapse, especially when electing a new president.
A third scenario—a broad coalition formed solely to oust Kurti—could create an inherently weak government. “Such a government would be united only by opposition to VV, rather than a shared political vision,” Emini noted, adding that Kurti could use this to frame political deadlock as the opposition’s failure, setting the stage for new elections.
Finally, Emini raises concerns about a prolonged crisis similar to Bulgaria’s political paralysis, which has seen multiple inconclusive elections. “Kosovo has endured periods without a functioning government before, but this time, the consequences could be more severe, affecting foreign policy and EU relations.”
Opposition’s Strategy: A Government Without VV?
Adelina Hasani, a researcher at the Kosovar Centre for Security Studies, argues that the most likely scenario is an opposition-led government with minority party support. “All major opposition parties have ruled out a coalition with VV,” she said, adding that Kosovo’s deeply divided political landscape complicates negotiations.
“The biggest challenge remains the ideological divide. VV built its identity on an anti-establishment platform, accusing opponents of corruption. This makes any potential alliance inherently unstable,” Hasani explained.
The Serb List Dilemma
Aleksandar Šljuka, a researcher at the Mitrovica-based New Social Initiative, highlights another complication: minority party votes. Even if VV secures backing from non-Serb minorities, it still falls short of a majority. The Serb List, tied to Belgrade, remains politically untouchable for Kosovo’s Albanian parties.
“An opposition-led government is mathematically possible, but the lack of consensus among minority parties is a major obstacle,” Šljuka said. “If no agreement is reached, new elections may be inevitable.”
Relations With the U.S. and the EU: A Test for Kosovo’s Diplomacy
Beyond domestic political turmoil, Kosovo’s next government will face pressing foreign policy challenges, including strained relations with the European Union and the United States. The EU’s restrictive measures—combined with a U.S. suspension of foreign aid—have already placed economic and political pressure on Pristina.
“The new government must make rebuilding ties with Brussels a priority,” Emini said, emphasizing that Kosovo’s EU accession process remains at a standstill. “Without active diplomatic engagement, Kosovo risks indefinite stagnation.”
Adding to the uncertainty, the return of Donald Trump’s administration in Washington may complicate U.S.-Kosovo relations. Trump’s former envoy for the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, Richard Grenell, has openly criticized Kurti, calling him anti-Western.
“If VV forms a government, tensions with Washington are likely,” Hasani said. “Trump’s foreign policy priorities remain unclear, but Kosovo cannot afford to alienate the U.S.”
Uncertain Road Ahead
As Kosovo’s leaders navigate coalition talks, the stakes are high. A prolonged crisis could erode trust in institutions, weaken Kosovo’s standing internationally, and stall much-needed economic reforms.
“The coming weeks will determine Kosovo’s political future,” Emini said. “Whether leaders can steer the country toward stability or push it into deeper uncertainty remains to be seen.”
