Montenegro could enter the European Union under a stricter accession treaty than the one Croatia signed in 2011, as Brussels prepares a new enlargement model in which conditions, monitoring, and safeguard mechanisms would continue even after membership, according to an analysis by European Western Balkans.
EU member state ambassadors on April 22 approved the creation of an ad hoc working group tasked with preparing Montenegro’s accession treaty. While the basic structure is expected to follow Croatia’s model, Podgorica’s agreement is likely to include stronger and more detailed safeguard clauses.
EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos recently said Montenegro’s accession treaty would be the first to include new protection mechanisms. Such clauses are not entirely new in the EU, but this time they are tied to the bloc’s broader preparations for future enlargement from an institutional, political, and financial perspective.
Pierre Mirel, former director at the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Enlargement, told European Western Balkans that the treaty must contain strong guarantees protecting the judiciary, its independence, impartiality, and efficiency, with continued monitoring by the European Commission even after accession.
That would mean Montenegro, even as an EU member state, would remain under Brussels’ scrutiny regarding rule-of-law standards.
The key shift lies in the logic of enlargement itself. Fiona McIlwham of the European Liberal Forum said Montenegro’s agreement is likely to go beyond Croatia’s, both in scope and philosophy. Instead of relying largely on trust, the EU is increasingly moving toward a model in which a new member state must continuously demonstrate institutional resilience and alignment with European standards.
Croatia’s accession treaty included transitional periods in areas such as free movement of workers, capital, competition, financial services, transport, and internal borders. Similar transitional arrangements are expected for Montenegro, but this time they could be tied to specific economic indicators, particularly given concerns about labor shortages and emigration.
This issue is particularly sensitive for Podgorica. Mirel noted that transitional restrictions on labor mobility may reflect not only concerns among member states about incoming workers but also efforts to protect Montenegro itself from losing skilled labor.
Examples include the tourism sector, where the country already faces labor shortages, and healthcare, where the departure of nurses and doctors could further weaken the public system.
According to the analysis, the most significant part of the future treaty will likely be extended conditionality. Croatia’s accession agreement contained three safeguard clauses — a general economic clause, an internal market clause, and a justice and home affairs clause — allowing protective measures if obligations were not met before accession.
In Montenegro’s case, the mechanisms could be more directly tied to rule-of-law performance and access to EU funds. Mirel noted that the EU already has a budget conditionality mechanism allowing the freezing of funds if violations of rule-of-law principles threaten the European budget.
McIlwham said Montenegro’s treaty could establish a more permanent connection with the EU’s annual rule-of-law reporting cycle. That could allow the bloc to suspend or withdraw certain membership benefits if democratic standards deteriorate.
In a broader political context, the development suggests that although Montenegro is considered the frontrunner among EU candidates, it will not receive a “blank check.”
After facing internal disputes over rule-of-law issues among some current member states, the European Union appears determined to approach its next enlargement with stronger safeguards.
For the Western Balkans, the message is significant. If Montenegro, as the region’s most advanced candidate, receives a stricter accession treaty, the same model could later apply to other aspiring members.
EU membership remains the goal, but future accession treaties are likely to become less ceremonial and far more focused on oversight, conditionality, and enforcement mechanisms.