Preliminary results from Kosovo’s Feb. 9 parliamentary elections have created uncertainty about the composition of the new parliament and the formation of the next government, political analysts say.
According to early results released by the Central Election Commission (CEC), the ruling Self-Determination Movement (Vetëvendosje) secured the most votes, winning about 41.14%—a drop from the more than 50% it received in 2021.
The Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) placed second with 21.99%, followed by the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) with 17.68% and the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) with 7.65%.
Serb List, the main political party representing Kosovo’s Serb minority, received 4.05% of the vote, capturing the majority of votes among Serb voters who were split among six competing parties.
Uncertain Parliamentary and Government Composition
Kosovo’s 120-seat parliament includes 20 seats reserved for non-majority communities, 10 of which are guaranteed for the Serb community.
Naim Rashiti, director of the Balkans Policy Research Group in Pristina, said the preliminary results remain inconclusive, as votes from the diaspora and conditional ballots could still impact the final outcome.
“Vetëvendosje currently stands at around 42%, which would give it 47 seats. With votes from the diaspora, it could gain two or three more seats,” Rashiti told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). “If it reaches 49-50 seats, we will see different calculations. If opposition parties narrow the gap with Vetëvendosje, the situation will shift again.”
More than 104,000 voters were registered to cast ballots from abroad, with about 84,500 sending votes by mail. An additional 15,552 voters participated at Kosovo’s diplomatic missions worldwide, while the number of conditional ballots cast domestically remains unknown.
Vetëvendosje Faces Coalition Challenge
Political analyst Artan Muhaxhiri said that while Vetëvendosje remains the leading party, it will not be able to govern alone as it did in its previous term.
“If Vetëvendosje tries to form a government with only minority parties, it will be highly unstable, barely securing the 61 votes needed for a majority,” Muhaxhiri said. “If opposition parties unite and attempt to form a government, that coalition would also be fragile.”
During the campaign, Vetëvendosje ruled out forming a coalition with opposition parties. Meanwhile, both the LDK and AAK have rejected any partnership with Vetëvendosje, while the PDK has not set any conditions for post-election alliances.
Muhaxhiri said the results will force parties to make compromises.
“There is no viable scenario for a stable government without political concessions,” he said, adding that the final election results, once announced by the CEC, will provide a clearer picture of potential coalition agreements.
Kurti Claims Victory but Awaits Coalition Talks
Despite the uncertainty, Prime Minister Albin Kurti declared victory late Sunday, insisting that Vetëvendosje remains Kosovo’s dominant political force.
“Even if the PDK and LDK unite, they still won’t be as strong as Vetëvendosje,” Kurti told supporters, adding that his coalition with the Guxo and Alternativa parties will continue.
“We are the winners, and this confirms a good, democratic government,” Kurti said.
PDK, which finished second, welcomed the result, calling it a “clear sign of public confidence.” Spokesperson Blerand Stavileci said the party is assessing its next steps but did not confirm whether it is open to coalition talks.
LDK leader Lumir Abdixhiku described the results as democratic but admitted they fell short of the party’s expectations. AAK leader Ramush Haradinaj, meanwhile, said the opposition had effectively won the election and called for a united front to form a new government.
Serb List, which has held all 10 guaranteed Serb minority seats in parliament since 2014, declared victory among Serb voters.
Role of Serb List in Government Formation
Tensions in northern Kosovo have placed Serb List in opposition to Kurti’s government. However, political analysts are divided on whether the party will play a role in forming the next government.
Muhaxhiri said Serb List remains the most legitimate representative of Kosovo’s Serbs and should not be excluded from coalition negotiations.
“If we compare Vetëvendosje and the opposition as potential partners for Serb List, it is far more likely that Serb List would align with the opposition,” he said.
However, Rashiti said he expects Kosovo’s next government—regardless of who forms it—to avoid partnering with Serb List.
“The precedent has already been set. The outgoing government appointed Serb ministers who were not from Serb List,” Rashiti said. “I believe Serb List will be left out of the equation.”
Election Transparency Concerns
The CEC has faced criticism over its handling of election results, with analysts calling its performance “unprofessional.”
Kosovo’s voter turnout stood at around 40%, down from more than 48% in 2021. More than 125,000 first-time voters participated in the election.
With 28 political parties and one independent candidate competing, the final results will determine the exact parliamentary seat distribution and open the door for coalition talks.
