Hungary’s energy group MOL is poised to acquire a majority stake in Serbia’s state-linked oil company Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS) from Russian owners for a sum that analysts say could be significantly higher than official Serbian estimates, according to industry sources and regional media reports.
Hungarian media outlet Népszava, citing unnamed informed sources, reported that MOL could pay around €1.4 billion ($1.66 billion) for a 56.15 percent stake held by Russia’s Gazprom and its oil unit, Gazprom Neft. That figure aligns with earlier projections by analysts at Erste Bank, who estimated a higher transaction value than official Serbian pronouncements.
In contrast, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has publicly stated that the price MOL agreed to pay is between €900 million and €1 billion for the same stake. Speaking in a live broadcast on Belgrade-based Blic TV, Vučić said Serbia had been prepared to offer “double” that amount, but that the deal proceeded with the lower price range.
The divergent price estimates have sparked debate among market participants and government officials, with some brokers and analysts suggesting that even a €1.4 billion consideration would be favorable for MOL relative to NIS’s broader book value and market expectations.
Strategic deal under U.S. sanctions pressure
The tentative deal comes amid ongoing pressure from U.S. sanctions targeting Russian energy assets in Europe. Washington’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed sanctions on NIS in 2025 as part of broader measures linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine, forcing disruptions to oil imports to Serbia and temporarily halting operations at the Pančevo refinery — the country’s only major crude processing facility.
To avert fuel shortages during the winter and allow time for a sale to non-Russian buyers, OFAC granted a temporary waiver enabling NIS to continue importing crude until Feb. 20, 2026, while the divestment process unfolds.
Under the proposed structure, MOL would acquire the majority stake from Gazprom and Gazprom Neft. Serbian officials have also secured provisions under which the government’s own holding in NIS would rise by an additional 5 percentage points, strengthening Serbia’s share in the company following the transaction.
Market reaction and regional implications
News of the planned acquisition has driven MOL’s share price to multi-year highs, reflecting investor optimism about expanding the company’s footprint in Central and Southeast Europe. Observers say the deal, if completed, would mark a significant shift in regional energy ownership patterns, reducing Russian influence in a key Balkan energy asset.
Despite market speculation and media reporting, MOL has declined to publicly confirm the exact purchase price or detailed terms of the transaction. The deal remains subject to regulatory approvals, including from OFAC and relevant Serbian authorities, with parties aiming to finalise agreements by late March.