Are the Orthodox churches in the Balkans part of the “invisible empire” of Russia? One telling indicator is the positioning of the region’s churches between the two poles of the Orthodox world – the Moscow Patriarchate and the Istanbul-based Ecumenical Patriarchate. This division became particularly clear after the start of Russian aggression in Ukraine in February 2022, when two churches fought for recognition – the first was the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which was supported by the state, while the second was the Ukrainian Orthodox Church – the Patriarchate of Moscow. The latter was banned by the Ukrainian parliament in August 2024 for acting in line with the Kremlin’s agenda.

Instead of recognizing the Ukrainian Orthodox Church as the only religious authority recognized by the state, the Serbian, Bulgarian, Macedonian and Albanian churches have chosen to support the pro-Russian church.

The last church to recognize Russia’s religious installation in Ukraine was the Macedonian Orthodox Church – Ohrid Archdiocese. The decision was made just one month after the parliament in Kiev was suspended. With this law, there is a risk that the church in Skopje will not recognize its independence from the Ecumenical Patriarchate based in Istanbul, which positions itself against Russia’s influence through religion. In 2019, the Ecumenical Patriarchate recognized the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, dealing a blow to Russian church diplomacy. The conflict between the two centers of Eastern Orthodoxy, the Russian Church and the Ecumenical Patriarchate, makes the Macedonian Church hostage to a process that does not know how it will end.

“With this action, it is directly aligning itself with the Russian Church and siding against the Ecumenical Patriarchate,” Nikolay Krastev, a journalist from Sofia and a good expert on geopolitical relations, told The Geopost. “Although it is awaiting recognition, the Macedonian Church has decided to express its support for the pro-Russian Ukrainian Church, a move that raises many questions about its place in the Orthodox world. This will undoubtedly harm the Macedonian Church’s plans to receive the long-awaited recognition from the Ecumenical Patriarchate to become a truly equal church in the family of other Orthodox churches.”

Not recognized by the Serbian Church, the Macedonian Church has been in the process of being recognized by the Ecumenical Patriarchate in Istanbul since 2017. However, this decision jeopardizes this recognition and returns it to the ecclesiastical sphere of influence of Belgrade and Moscow.

“The Macedonian church has lost its chance to take the side of justice in this war, which has many aspects and is preceded by the ecclesiastical element. The influence of the “Serbian world” in the post-Yugoslav region led to the change of government in Montenegro and Macedonia, which (involuntarily) moved to Belgrade and from there to Moscow,” Krastev assesses.

According to him, the ecclesiastical influence of Russia and Serbia will increase because the Patriarchate of Moscow and Belgrade is turning the Church in Skopje into a pawn on the ecclesiastical chessboard.

Marjan Nikollovski, a Skopje-based analyst of church affairs in the region, tells The Geopost that the Russian church is thinking in territorial-imperialist terms.

“In this context, one of the last statements of the Russian Patriarch was – every territory of the former Soviet Union is under the jurisdiction of the Russian Church and it has power over it.” So tomorrow the Russian Church can create an autocephalous, autonomous and independent church, but within its federal borders. “This is the model of a confederation of churches,” says Nikolovski.

According to him, Russia is trying to implement the same model of church federation in the region by placing the territory of the former Yugoslavia under the jurisdiction of the Serbian Orthodox Church. “The Serbian Church has already falsely recognized the Macedonian Church. For this reason, attempts are being made to prevent recognition by the Ecumenical Patriarchate, so that the Macedonian Church remains an internal affair of the Serbian Church. It therefore remains an autocephalous church within the jurisdiction of the Serbian Church. “According to this model of a confederation of churches, tomorrow there could be a Montenegrin autocephalous Orthodox Church and even a Kosovar autocephalous Orthodox Church, of course within the Serbian confederation of churches,” says Nikolovski.

The analyst Krastev recalls that the Serbian Church and the Russian churches were against the independence of the Macedonian Church and for years sided with Belgrade and not Skopje. According to him, the Russian influence on Macedonian Orthodoxy is growing and this affects its behavior in the Orthodox world.

“I wonder how the Macedonian church would behave in order to resolve the issue of the Montenegrin church? It is not yet possible to say where the Macedonian Church is heading in this complex church diplomacy game, but the first signs show that the turn towards Belgrade and Moscow is going in the wrong direction,” emphasizes Krastev.

In the past, the Macedonian church did not hide some of its sympathies for Russia. In January last year, Bishop Antoni, the second man of the Russian Orthodox Church, visited North Macedonia. In addition to the meetings, he held a joint liturgy with Macedonian Archbishop Stefan. In January 2023, a delegation of Russian church representatives accompanied by the Russian ambassador to Skopje, Sergei Bezdnikin, visited the headquarters of the Macedonian Church in Skopje.

Russia’s influence through the Orthodox Church in the Balkans is great and without high costs. In addition to exerting influence, church representatives have often been caught engaging in espionage activities. In September 2023, North Macedonia expelled the representative of the Russian church, Vasian Zmeev, for espionage activities in the country. Bulgaria did the same, where the Russian priest Zmeev acted as the ecclesiastical representative of the Moscow Patriarchate in Sofia.

Writtes: Xhelal Neziri, associate of The Geopost from North Macedonia