When European Union leaders meet Western Balkan counterparts in Brussels this week, enlargement will once again dominate the agenda, buoyed by renewed political will in the bloc but complicated by uneven reform progress across the region.
More than two decades after the EU pledged to integrate the Western Balkans following the conflicts of the 1990s, only Croatia has joined, in 2013. Today, Brussels is signalling a stronger commitment, driven by security concerns, geopolitical competition and a desire to restore credibility in its neighbourhood policy.
Yet as accession prospects accelerate for some, others risk falling further behind.
Front-runners emerge
Montenegro, the smallest candidate country, is widely seen as leading the race. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos has said Podgorica could technically conclude accession talks by the end of 2026, with Albania potentially following a year later, allowing for ratification before the end of the decade.
Montenegro has recently closed five accession chapters, reinforcing its image as the region’s most advanced candidate. However, Brussels continues to demand tangible results in high-level corruption and organised crime cases, as well as the appointment of senior judicial officials.
Albania has also stepped up reforms, particularly in the judiciary, though concerns remain over corruption, institutional independence and democratic checks and balances. Analysts say sustained implementation, rather than legislative speed, will be decisive.
Serbia slows, questions unity
In contrast, reform momentum in Serbia – the region’s largest economy – has weakened, prompting President Aleksandar Vucic to suggest that all Western Balkan countries should join the EU simultaneously.
The proposal has been met with scepticism in Brussels and among regional analysts, who see it as an attempt to slow a merit-based process at a time when Serbia faces criticism over rule-of-law standards and its foreign policy alignment.
EU officials have reiterated that enlargement follows the “regatta principle,” under which each country advances at its own pace once conditions are met, with no fixed timelines.
Geopolitics drive urgency
For the EU, enlargement is increasingly framed as a strategic necessity rather than a technocratic exercise. Officials and analysts warn that prolonged stagnation leaves room for rival powers, notably Russia and China, to expand influence in the region.
Integrating smaller, more advanced candidates such as Montenegro is seen as a low-risk way for the EU to demonstrate credibility and reinforce stability along its southeastern flank.
Still, concerns persist that admitting only some countries could deepen regional divides or create new external EU borders within the Balkans.
No appetite for collective entry
While the idea of simultaneous accession could, in theory, prevent bilateral disputes from being imported into the EU, critics argue it would effectively tie progress to the slowest-moving candidates, potentially delaying those ready to join.
Montenegro has been explicit that it will not wait.
“We want to join the European Union when our results show that we are ready,” European Affairs Minister Maida Gorcevic said, rejecting any notion of a collective timetable.
Serbia, meanwhile, announced it would not attend Wednesday’s summit, with Vucic citing national interests.
As the EU revives its enlargement agenda, the Western Balkans face a decisive phase. The bloc appears increasingly willing to move forward – but only with those able to deliver lasting reforms.
For the region, the message from Brussels is clear: accession remains possible, but unity will not substitute for performance.