Donald Trump was sworn in today as the 47th President of the United States. Returning to the White House with plans to scale back international engagements, Trump’s second term has sparked concern among governments worldwide. But what does his presidency mean for the Western Balkans? Should the region brace for significant changes, or are expectations misplaced?
Swearing In Amid Uncertainty
Trump’s inauguration marks a turning point for global diplomacy. As leaders from across the political spectrum attended the event in Washington, the Western Balkans watched with a mixture of anticipation and apprehension. Prominent figures from Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo are hoping Trump’s administration will offer new opportunities—or at least ease existing tensions.
However, political analysts like Mladen Ivanić, a former member of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Presidency, caution against overestimating the region’s importance in Washington’s strategic priorities. “Trump’s first term demonstrated little interest in the Western Balkans, and there’s no indication his focus has shifted,” Ivanić told WDR.
Republic of Srpska: High Hopes, Few Guarantees
The leadership in Bosnia’s Serb-majority entity, the Republic of Srpska, has expressed optimistic expectations. President Milorad Dodik hopes Trump will lift sanctions imposed on officials for anti-constitutional activities. Dodik’s confidence stems from personal connections to Trump allies, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and former U.S. diplomat Richard Grenell.
Yet skeptics, including Sven Alkalaj, Bosnia’s ambassador to the U.S., argue that such hopes are misplaced. “The U.S. rarely reverses sanctions, regardless of who occupies the White House,” Alkalaj explained. “The State Department, not the President, drives policy in this region.”
Serbia’s Dilemma
For Serbia, Trump’s return comes at a critical juncture. American sanctions on the Russian-controlled Serbian oil industry have forced President Aleksandar Vučić into a precarious position. To strengthen ties with Washington, Serbia must distance itself from Moscow—a move that risks domestic backlash.
“Serbia faces tough choices,” Vučić admitted recently. “While we respect international norms, we won’t seize foreign assets under pressure. This is a pivotal moment for our nation.”
Kosovo and Serbia: Will Dialogue Resume?
Trump’s administration may push for a resolution to the long-standing Serbia-Kosovo dispute. Analysts speculate Grenell could reemerge as a key envoy, given his prior role in brokering economic agreements between the two nations.
However, Enver Kazaz, a political analyst from Sarajevo, doubts Washington will prioritize the region. “The Balkans are a peripheral issue for the U.S., often left to European bureaucracies to manage,” Kazaz said.
What Lies Ahead?
With global challenges like U.S.-China tensions and Middle East instability, the Western Balkans may remain low on Trump’s agenda. Ivanić and other experts agree: regional leaders should temper their expectations.
Unless a crisis demands attention or Orbán champions Balkan issues within Trump’s orbit, the region will likely see little direct engagement from the White House.
This report reflects the broader uncertainty surrounding U.S. foreign policy under Trump’s leadership, particularly in Europe’s southeast.
Source: WDR