Disinformation remains a persistent challenge in the Western Balkans, where coordinated campaigns often target major events to deepen social divides, undermine democratic institutions, and weaken support for Euro-Atlantic integration. The following are key events expected to be exploited by malign actors in the coming weeks, according to the latest edition of the Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn newsletter.
REGIONAL – NATO Summit in The Hague expected to trigger disinformation surge
The NATO Summit in The Hague, scheduled for June 24–26, is likely to become a flashpoint for disinformation across the Western Balkans. Observers anticipate renewed narratives portraying NATO as a destabilizing force, particularly targeting Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia – all current NATO members. Expected tactics include invoking historical grievances, notably NATO’s 1999 air campaign in Serbia, and suggesting that the region is being dragged into broader global conflicts, including the war in Ukraine.
REGIONAL – Albania–Serbia match heightens risk of ethno-nationalist narratives
The World Cup qualifier between Albania and Serbia, set for June 7 in Tirana, is drawing scrutiny amid concerns over disinformation and potential unrest. With more than 200,000 ticket requests and heightened security measures, the match revives memories of the politically charged 2014 encounter disrupted by a drone incursion. Analysts warn of attempts to inflame ethnic tensions through online and offline channels.
ALBANIA – Post-election disputes expected to drive conflicting narratives
As Albania awaits official results from the May parliamentary election, disinformation campaigns are expected to intensify. The opposition Democratic Party has rejected preliminary results after a significant drop in support and is expected to challenge outcomes before the Central Election Commission. Observers warn of competing narratives questioning the legitimacy of the electoral process.
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA – Srebrenica commemoration targeted by denial campaigns
The July 11 anniversary of the Srebrenica genocide is expected to be accompanied by intensified disinformation, especially following the 2024 UN resolution reaffirming the events as genocide. Analysts anticipate attempts to downplay or deny the atrocities, alongside the glorification of convicted war criminals, particularly in Republika Srpska and Serbian media.
KOSOVO – Police actions in the north likely to spark disinformation spike
Police operations targeting parallel institutions in northern Kosovo, dominated by ethnic Serbs, are expected to prompt a new wave of disinformation. While authorities frame the actions as constitutional enforcement, Serbian outlets frequently depict them as ethnically driven crackdowns, fueling mistrust and potential unrest.
MONTENEGRO – Tourism sector faces disinformation threats
Montenegro’s tourism sector is likely to be the focus of targeted disinformation, mainly from Serbian media. Previous years have seen campaigns portraying the country as unwelcoming or unsafe for Serbian tourists, with narratives centered on alleged discrimination, inflated prices, or mistreatment at border crossings.
NORTH MACEDONIA – UK partnership deal fuels migrant disinformation
The recent UK–North Macedonia strategic partnership, announced during the European Political Community summit in Tirana, has sparked speculation over the establishment of migrant “return centres” on Macedonian territory. Analysts expect disinformation campaigns to exploit public concern and resurface unverified claims in the coming weeks.
SERBIA – Environmental and agricultural issues exploited for propaganda
Emerging environmental and agricultural crises in Serbia are likely to fuel disinformation. Narratives may attempt to downplay ecological damage, blame foreign actors – particularly the EU – for local problems, or discredit environmental activists and scientists. Such campaigns may aim to shift accountability away from national authorities.