By Alexis Papachelas
Anyone who has rushed to draw conclusions about what US President Donald Trump’s policy will be toward Greece and Turkey has taken a very big risk. Because the truth is that no one, absolutely no one, can give us a reliable answer.
It is easy, for example, to draw conclusions from the White House event last week to celebrate Greek Independence Day, but they will be very superficial and hasty. The atmosphere and the “decor” has not changed, the Greek recipe was the same under Joe Biden. And what he mentioned in his comments was a repetition of what would have been included in a relevant paper that the bureaucracy of the National Security Council and the State Department would have prepared a few months ago.
The only safe conclusion from the event is that Trump is sending a personal friend to Athens as head of the embassy who will be able to call him on his cellphone, if necessary. On the other hand, we saw the US president comment the next day, in a discussion with another close supporter, who will take over the embassy in Ankara, that Turkey is an excellent country and Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan is an excellent leader.
The problem is that we are not talking about a normal government where decisions are made in the traditional way. We do not even know if and who is informed about what Trump and Erdogan said on the phone. We also do not know if Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose views are similar to those of Mike Pompeo, his predecessor in the first Trump administration, plays a role in shaping policy in the Eastern Mediterranean and how much he is listened to. So far, it is not clear who is handling the file of the region and who Trump listens to on issues that concern us. And there are countless people, Greek Americans and others, who seek to sell access to the Trump administration in exchange for various benefits.
Greece and Cyprus have invested a lot in the role of Israel and its powerful lobby in the US, especially with regard to the F-35 fighter jets. However, the Israelis have many issues ahead of them and are very careful about what they say on this issue. As one lobbyist said, “maybe we can slow down the F-35 process if Trump chooses to give Ankara the green light,” indirectly warning that Athens’ expectations should be grounded.
Great care is needed in the near future. If either the planned undersea energy cable linking Greece, Cyprus and Israel, or the acceptance of Chevron’s interest in exploring for hydrocarbon deposits south of Crete lead to tension with Turkey, not even a psychic can safely predict what Trump will say and do. And we are talking about Trump only because that is where everything ends up.
But caution is also needed in the event that a request for a meeting between Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Trump is granted. As a veteran American official used to say, “if you get on his radar for some reason, you never know how you will get out.” We have entered the most unpredictable period since the Second World War. The dust has not settled and the horizon is hazy. It is time for careful and measured moves.
Source: Kathimerini
