In the early months of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a rare political alignment emerged across Europe. Governments in Brussels and beyond moved swiftly to grant candidate status to Ukraine, Moldova, and later Georgia, while also accelerating long-stalled accession talks with Western Balkan countries. For the first time in years — perhaps in the European Union’s history — public opinion rallied around the idea of EU enlargement.
But that surge of public goodwill may now be fading.
According to Dmytro Panchuk, a policy analyst and contributor to the European Consortium for Political Research’s blog The Loop, the war in Ukraine triggered an “unusually strong convergence between political elites and the public” on EU enlargement. In his view, this alignment is “rare and fragile” — and the EU must act quickly before it disappears.
“Fully implemented, enlargement could help the region heal the most divisive frozen conflict in the Balkans since 1999,” Panchuk writes, warning that delay risks allowing war fatigue and populist rhetoric to erode a unique window of opportunity.
A Geopolitical Shift
When Russian troops crossed into Ukraine in February 2022, it jolted Europe’s political imagination. Brussels responded with urgency. Within months, Ukraine and Moldova had secured EU candidate status, while Georgia followed soon after. Meanwhile, the Western Balkans — long mired in institutional limbo — saw renewed attention from EU leaders.
But it wasn’t only institutions that shifted. According to Eurobarometer data, public support for enlargement reached its highest levels in nearly two decades. Citizens in traditionally skeptical countries like France, Germany, and Italy expressed growing openness to new member states — especially Ukraine.
Polling from 2022 showed that perceptions of Russia as a threat were a key factor. A majority of Europeans who supported enlargement also viewed Russia’s aggression as a direct challenge to the EU’s security and values. Analysts from the EU Commission’s Joint Research Centre confirmed the correlation, even when controlling for political ideology, trust in EU institutions, and socioeconomic status.
“Citizens who view Russia as a threat are significantly more likely to support enlargement,” the data shows, underscoring the geopolitical undercurrent driving the shift.
A Fragile Consensus
But as quickly as public sentiment surged, it has begun to wane. Support for Ukraine’s candidacy, which peaked at over 65% in 2022, has now stabilized around 60%. Broader support for enlargement has dipped to just above 50%, according to a synthesis of Flash Eurobarometer 506 and Standard Eurobarometer surveys conducted between January 2022 and November 2024.
The change reflects shifting threat perceptions. The sense of immediate danger posed by Russia has decreased by eight percentage points across the EU since spring 2022, according to Commission research. As that anxiety ebbs, so too does enthusiasm for bringing new countries into the European fold.
In an interview with The Loop, Panchuk cautions that public support “remains highly sensitive to Europe’s security environment” and to how political leaders and media frame that environment. Without sustained engagement, he warns, “the current consensus on EU widening could easily unravel.”
An Urgent Political Choice
Analysts across Europe are sounding the alarm. In her analysis for The Loop, political scientist Veronica Anghel argues that enlargement is no longer just a policy preference — it is now “the EU’s most powerful geopolitical tool.” But to use it effectively, she says, leaders must do more than agree on strategy. They must carry public opinion with them.
That means acting fast. “Institutional reforms and tangible progress in the accession process are necessary to match words with action,” Panchuk writes. So far, there is some movement: the European Commission has proposed changes to internal decision-making procedures to prepare for future enlargements, and pre-accession funding has increased. Still, much of the process remains bogged down by technical hurdles and political inertia.
Some signs are encouraging. Even certain populist parties — long skeptical of enlargement — have softened their tone since 2022, apparently responding to shifting voter sentiment. But as Giselle Bosse, a professor of EU external relations, noted in the same series, that shift will not hold without deliberate effort.
“Engaging citizens at the grassroots level is essential,” Bosse argues. “That means countering disinformation, investing in civic dialogue, and linking enlargement to everyday concerns like security, energy, and jobs.”
Before the Window Closes
The geopolitical case for enlargement is clearer than ever, but political momentum is never permanent. As the United States recalibrates its global role and Russia continues to wield hybrid tactics across Europe, the EU faces an uncomfortable choice: deepen integration — or risk paralysis.
“Normative criteria must remain the foundation,” Panchuk acknowledges. But in the short term, he argues, urgency should guide decision-making.
Public opinion — for now — still supports this vision. The challenge, as ever, is ensuring that support doesn’t slip away before the EU is ready to act.