orth Macedonia is projected to lose more than one in every ten citizens by 2050, according to a 2023 study by Armas, which ranks the country among the world’s top 20 most at-risk states for population decline. The broader Western Balkans region — including Albania, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina — is facing a demographic crisis driven by persistently low birth rates and high levels of emigration.
The study estimates that between 2020 and 2050, the population will fall by 11% in North Macedonia, 19% in Serbia, 18.2% in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and 16% in Albania.
“These countries are not only among the global leaders in population decline, but also represent Europe’s main depopulation hotspots,” the report states, citing both natural decline and high migration outflows as primary causes.
The total fertility rate remains far below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman: Bosnia and Herzegovina (1.37), North Macedonia (1.47), Albania (1.55), Serbia (1.42), and Montenegro (1.74), according to Armas.
The Western Balkans have also seen sustained large-scale emigration over the last three decades. The study notes that 49% of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s population and 44% of Albania’s reside abroad, while North Macedonia follows with 34%, Montenegro with 21%, and Serbia with 15%.
“It is a region that is becoming increasingly poorer, where the younger generation and its workforce are moving abroad,” the study says, citing widespread political instability, corruption, and the allure of better wages and living conditions as the main drivers of labor migration. “This is particularly applicable to young people who face the hardships of poverty, unemployment, and social exclusion.”
The report highlights a major challenge in tracking demographic change: the lack of reliable and harmonized data across the region.
“Migration data are underestimated due to inconsistent definitions of the resident population across the Western Balkans. Minorities are often miscounted due to census boycotts. In some cases, countries have hidden or modified official data, while in others, like North Macedonia, no population census was conducted for nearly two decades,” the study notes. It adds that none of the Western Balkan states maintain an official population register.
Meanwhile, the Center for Policy Research and Development is conducting a parallel analysis focused on demographic dynamics in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia. The center is collecting primary data and plans to use economic modeling to assess how demographic shifts will affect the sustainability of public finance, healthcare, and social protection systems.