U.S. intelligence agencies have warned that the Western Balkans remains a region of heightened political tensions and strong external influence, with Russia continuing to play a key role in driving instability.
In its Annual Threat Assessment for 2026, released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in the United States, the report says the war in Ukraine has deepened divisions between the West and Moscow, with direct implications for security in the Balkans.
“Russia is stoking instability in relations between Serbia, which it backs, and Kosovo, while also supporting secessionist rhetoric in Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina,” the report said.
The assessment finds that ethnic and political divisions across the region remain deep and pose potential security risks, particularly when combined with the influence of external actors.
The Western Balkans is described as an arena where major powers’ interests collide, while unresolved disputes – including relations between Serbia and Kosovo and internal political tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina – continue to be key sources of instability.
Published on March 18, the report warns the region remains especially vulnerable to political interference, disinformation and efforts to undermine Europe’s security architecture.
Beyond regional risks, the U.S. intelligence community also highlights broader global threats, including intensifying competition among the United States, China and Russia, as well as the rapid development of cyberattacks and emerging technologies that could be used to destabilize states.
The report underscores that terrorism, organized crime and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction remain long-term challenges to international security.
While the capabilities of major terrorist organizations have weakened, the report warns that the threat of low-level attacks carried out by individuals or small groups inspired by extremist ideologies persists, including in Europe.
U.S. officials assess that these risks, combined with rising geopolitical tensions, will continue to shape the global security landscape in the period ahead.