Serbia’s far-right political space could play a decisive role in upcoming elections as new actors, including a popular social media influencer and a former health minister, signal plans to enter politics, potentially siphoning votes from an emerging student-led opposition movement.
Although elections have not yet been formally called, political campaigning has intensified amid expectations that a student-backed list could pose the strongest challenge yet to President Aleksandar Vučić’s ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).
Influencer Bogdan Ilić, widely known as “Baka Prase,” and former health minister Danica Grujičić have both announced possible candidacies. While coming from sharply different backgrounds, analysts say both promote narratives associated with nationalist and sovereigntist politics.
Ilić said last month he may run for mayor of Belgrade. His potential bid has been backed by Levijatan, a controversial far-right group previously linked by critics to cooperation with the authorities. Ilić has said he does not support either the government or the student movement, and has made opposition to migrants a central theme of his political messaging.
He also drew public attention last week after appearing alongside Vučić during the president’s first live broadcast on TikTok.
Grujičić, a former neurosurgeon who served as health minister until last year, has helped establish the Sovereignist Alliance together with four other movements. She has said the bloc is independent of the ruling party and is open to cooperation with the student list under certain conditions.
However, student protesters have accused her of acting as a “satellite” of the SNS, a label she has not been able to fully shake despite her recent criticism of the government.
Political analysts say the emergence of new right-wing actors reflects both a long-standing pattern of co-opting nationalist movements and calculations about voter sentiment in a fragmented opposition landscape.
“In hybrid political systems, authorities often favour selected right-wing actors to weaken opposition unity and confuse voters,” said Dejan Bursać of the Institute for Philosophy and Social Theory in Belgrade.
Even small shifts in voter support could prove decisive. In the 2024 local elections in Niš, a single seat held by a minor party tipped control in favour of the ruling coalition.
Polls suggest nationalist and pro-sovereignty attitudes remain widespread in Serbia. Surveys cited by DW show that around two-thirds of respondents support Russian President Vladimir Putin’s policies, while public opinion on European Union membership remains evenly divided.
Analysts estimate that alternative right-wing parties have won around 10% of the vote in recent elections, though their actual potential may be higher due to voter abstention and the ruling party’s ability to absorb nationalist-leaning support.
The student movement, which has led protests for more than a year, has also attracted voters from across the political spectrum, including some with nationalist views.
“What we are seeing is a confrontation between two broad political camps – Vučić’s list and the student list,” said political consultant Dušan Milenković. “That makes it unlikely the election will be perfectly polarised.”
As campaigning intensifies, observers say it remains unclear which of the new right-wing initiatives represent genuine alternatives – and which may ultimately benefit the ruling party.
Serbia has not yet set a date for new parliamentary or local elections. The last snap parliamentary election was held in December 2023, meaning the next regular vote is due by 2027 unless President Aleksandar Vučić calls early elections. Political parties and movements have nevertheless begun positioning themselves amid expectations that early polls could be called later this year or in 2027.