When the West is divided, the consequences are felt in the Balkans, analysts say, warning that strained transatlantic ties could give Russia greater room to assert influence in a region long marked by fragile stability.
U.S. President Donald Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Aug. 15, 2025, as Washington and Moscow continued talks aimed at ending a war in Ukraine that has dragged on for nearly four years. The renewed dialogue has raised concerns in parts of Europe and the Western Balkans that Russia may seek a stronger role in regional affairs amid tensions between the United States and the European Union.
Russia has long opposed Kosovo’s independence, from resisting NATO’s 1999 intervention to comparing Kosovo with annexed Crimea and blocking international recognition efforts. With U.S.-EU relations under strain, analysts say Moscow could try to capitalise.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said this month that Moscow had opened channels of communication with Washington on Balkan issues and was ready to deepen them, adding that U.S. officials appeared willing to engage.
“We have more opportunities to communicate with the United States on the Balkans than with the EU, particularly on Bosnia and Herzegovina and other countries in the region,” Lavrov said, adding that contacts had yet to produce concrete results.
The U.S. State Department did not respond to questions on whether Washington was discussing Kosovo, Bosnia or other Balkan issues with Russia. The European Union said it could not confirm exchanges between third parties, stressing that it remained the Western Balkans’ main political, economic and strategic partner.
Kosovo’s government declined to comment, but acting Prime Minister Albin Kurti warned at the World Economic Forum in Davos that Russia posed an indirect threat to Kosovo through Serbia, noting that neither country recognises Kosovo’s independence.
“Anyone who helps our northern neighbour destabilise us creates problems for us as well. Our closest threat in this regard is the Russian Federation,” Kurti said.
Russia’s influence in the Western Balkans is strongest through its ties with Serbia and Bosnia’s Serb-dominated Republika Srpska, analysts say. Its reach in Montenegro, North Macedonia and Kosovo remains more limited and often indirect, exercised through disinformation, pro-Russian media, energy leverage and political networks.
A 2024 report by the Kosovo Centre for Security Studies said one of Moscow’s key goals in the region was to prevent Serbia from aligning fully with the West, partly by backing Belgrade’s stance on Kosovo and obstructing efforts to normalise relations.
Nearly four years after invading Ukraine, Russia remains under Western sanctions and diplomatic isolation. Some of those barriers have eased following the Trump–Putin meeting and subsequent talks, while many European leaders have maintained a tougher line, deepening transatlantic frictions already strained by disputes ranging from Gaza to Greenland.
“The transatlantic split is a dream come true for Moscow,” said Ivana Stradner of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, warning that Russia could exploit Balkan crises, particularly in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as leverage in broader negotiations with the West.
Charles Kupchan of the Council on Foreign Relations said Russia was seeking to portray the United States as its main negotiating partner while sidelining the EU, calling the divide dangerous and counterproductive.
“The EU is America’s principal partner in the Balkans, not Russia,” Kupchan said, adding that closer U.S.-EU coordination was essential despite current strains.
Analysts differ on how central Kosovo is to Moscow’s strategy. While some warn of potential Russian efforts to stir unrest, others argue Russia’s main levers remain in Serbia and Bosnia, where energy dependence, economic ties, and media influence give Moscow lasting leverage.
Still, experts agree that continued Western unity will be critical to limiting Russian influence in a region where unresolved disputes and external rivalries remain a persistent risk.