By Xhelal Neziri
Two documents published by the United States of America (USA) at the end of 2025 are being interpreted by European diplomats and analysts as signals of a profound reorientation of U.S. foreign policy: the first is the 28-point plan to end the war between Ukraine and Russia; the second is the U.S. National Security Strategy. Together, these two documents not only reshape American foreign policy but also reorganize the world order that has dominated international relations for 80 years, since the end of World War II.
THE END OF THE BLOODIEST WAR
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in February 2022 will soon mark its fourth anniversary. It was an unprecedented intervention by Moscow against a sovereign state, one with which it shares few differences in terms of the identity background of the peoples involved in this war. According to data from British intelligence services, more than 1.1 million Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded during this period, while on the other side, more than 400,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or injured in the fighting. Around 40,000 Ukrainian civilians have been wounded, 15,000 killed, 8 million displaced to European countries, 6 million internally displaced within Ukraine, and material damage has reached €600 billion. Before the war began in 2022, Ukraine had a population of 44 million; now it stands at 35 million. According to World Bank estimates, Ukraine will need at least €550 billion to repair the damage caused by the war by rebuilding destroyed infrastructure and settlements, equivalent to three EU budgets or around 150 Kosovo budgets.
Confronted with this madness on the ground, U.S. President Donald Trump marked the beginning of his term this year with radical decisions that also implied ending wars around the world. On his list of claimed successes, he mentions halting or de-escalating the conflicts between India and Pakistan, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Israel and Palestine, DR Congo and Rwanda, Egypt and Ethiopia, Cambodia and Thailand, and Kosovo and Serbia. The war he promised to end within 24 hours—the Ukraine–Russia war—proved to be a tougher nut to crack. Yet with the 28-point plan, he appears set to end this war as well, regardless of the reactions of other global actors and with little regard for the consequences such a solution may have worldwide.
His plan, received with caution in European countries, according to reports by American and European media, entails halting the conflict; recognizing the territories of eastern Ukraine (Crimea, Donetsk, Donbas, Luhansk) as part of Russia; Ukraine’s withdrawal from aspirations to join NATO; security guarantees for Ukraine equivalent to those of an Alliance member state; a reduction of Ukraine’s armed forces to 600,000; and parliamentary elections within 100 days of signing the agreement. This solution appears dictated by developments on the battlefield as well as by U.S. interests in stopping the war at any cost. It is far more unfavorable to Ukraine than the Istanbul Agreement drafted several months after the start of the Russian aggression, which Kyiv rejected. That agreement envisaged Ukrainian neutrality and recognition of autonomy for its eastern regions inhabited predominantly by ethnic Russians, in line with the Minsk Agreements (2014, 2015). A miscalculation by Ukraine’s leadership that will cost the country dearly in historical terms across all aspects.
Europeans once again found themselves sidelined and taken by surprise by this plan, which they did not hesitate to describe as favoring Moscow. However, they have little room for maneuver other than to line up behind Trump to preserve the cohesion of what is known as the global West.
THE FINLAND FORMULA—TERRITORY FOR PEACE
The agreement is likely to be accepted by both Moscow and Kyiv, as American pressure on them becomes unbearable. While Russia has been crippled by sanctions and is losing assets and influence around the world, Ukraine’s two anti-corruption institutions (NABU and SAPO), established with U.S. support, have already compiled a serious case on alleged financial abuses by the cabinet of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In November, Ukrainian police raided the home of his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, who was the most powerful figure in Ukraine and the chief negotiator with the Americans on the 28-point plan.
Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg revealed in an interview with international media in September 2025 that he had offered Zelenskyy the Finnish formula for resolving the conflict. This refers to the solution that ended the war between Finland and Russia in 1944, known as “territory for peace.” Finland ceded 20 percent of its territory to Russia, including a city with nearly half a million inhabitants. It also committed to neutrality, which it abandoned in April 2023 when it joined NATO as a preventive measure against a new Russian aggression following that in Ukraine. Ukraine, too, is expected to give up 20 percent of its territory, which has long been occupied by Russia and has even been unilaterally incorporated as part of Russian territory. It is also expected to accept neutrality imposed by Moscow, abandoning its aspirations for NATO membership.
There are indications that this agreement has a broader scope that does not concern Ukraine alone. Direct Trump–Putin meetings, as well as intensive communications with Moscow through Trump’s most trusted associates—such as business partner Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner—have produced a broader agreement on the division of spheres of influence, similar to the Yalta Agreement of 1945, immediately after the end of World War II. Fortunately, the Balkans remain part of the Western hemisphere—a moment likely to mark intensive developments during 2026 aimed at uprooting Russian presence in the region. These developments may also be accompanied by destabilizing tendencies, but there is a strong likelihood that the reduction of Russian influence will first bring about the democratization of Serbia, followed by countries where Belgrade wields considerable influence, such as Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and North Macedonia.