Serbia has the constitutional right to temporarily nationalize its oil company NIS if it is in the public interest, but authorities will not take that step, reflecting their deference to the Kremlin, energy expert Miodrag Kapor told broadcaster N1 on Tuesday.
Sanctions on Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS), majority-owned by Russia’s Gazprom Neft, are expected to take effect next week after a brief delay, according to Nova Ekonomija. Kapor said high-level negotiations were likely under way in Washington involving Serbian officials, Russian lawyers, and stakeholders from Hungary and Croatia’s oil pipeline operator JANAF.
“If full sanctions are imposed, it would be a major blow to Serbia’s economy and political stability,” Kapor said. “The U.S. administration is aware of that and is weighing the risks and benefits. These sanctions are not only about financing the war in Ukraine, but also about Russian propaganda activities in Serbia and the region.”
He added that even without full implementation, the sanctions were already having an effect as foreign companies refused to sign long-term contracts with NIS.
“Under Serbia’s Constitution and energy and defense laws, the state has the right to temporarily nationalize NIS if it is in the public interest,” Kapor said. “It clearly is in the citizens’ interest, but the government and the president refuse to act, which says a lot about their relationship with Kremlin officials.”
Kapor said he did not expect Serbia’s stance to change unless it received a “green light from Moscow.”
Economist Nebojša Atanacković told state news agency Tanjug that sanctions would disrupt crude oil supplies to NIS refineries and could drive up fuel prices, but added that the state had time to prepare for the shock.
OFAC sanctions typically last around seven years, said analyst Dejan Lukić, noting that NIS, which has sought to change its ownership structure since early 2025, had not yet received approval from U.S. authorities.
“If sanctions are fully enforced, it could cause a severe economic shock,” Lukić said. “NIS is critical to Serbia’s economy — from thousands of employees to its role in the wholesale and retail fuel markets and its debt obligations to banks.”
Energy analyst Jelica Putniković told RTS public television that Washington had repeatedly delayed sanctions to give Serbia and Russia time to adjust NIS’s ownership, but no substantial change had occurred.
“There are reports Russia may transfer its stake in NIS to U.S. interests, but until we see an official document, the uncertainty remains,” she said.
Putniković said Serbia had enough fuel reserves for three to six months and that Western companies operating in the country had already built up supplies, so shortages were not expected. However, she warned that once crude reserves are depleted, “a financial collapse of NIS is possible if there is no Russian support.”
Serbia’s Ministry of Energy said it had prepared contingency plans to maintain fuel supply stability if sanctions take effect.
President Aleksandar Vučić said he would hold further talks with Russia and that there was “nothing left to discuss” with the United States regarding the NIS sanctions.