The Trump administration’s latest sanctions on Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil are reverberating through the Balkans, where several countries still depend on Russian crude and refined fuels despite EU and U.S. restrictions.
The new measures, announced after the collapse of another round of talks aimed at ending the Ukraine war, target Russia’s two biggest petroleum producers in what Washington says is an effort to “degrade the Kremlin’s ability to fund its war machine.”
While China, India, and Turkey remain the largest buyers of Russian oil, the Balkan region – especially Serbia and parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina – faces renewed energy uncertainty as the sanctions tighten global trade routes.
Impact on the Western Balkans
Serbia, which maintains close ties with Moscow and has not joined Western sanctions, imports a significant portion of its crude through the JANAF pipeline via Croatia. Analysts warn that the new U.S. sanctions could complicate these flows if intermediaries handling refined Russian oil face restrictions.
“Even if Serbia claims the oil is technically not Russian, traceability under the new sanctions regime will be much stricter,” said an energy analyst in Vienna. “This could raise costs and disrupt supply at a politically sensitive time.”
In North Macedonia and Montenegro, both NATO members, governments have sought to diversify energy imports away from Russian sources since 2022, but refiners and distributors still rely on regional storage and re-export networks that may now be affected.
Lukoil, which operates retail networks across the Balkans, has not yet commented on whether its subsidiaries in Serbia, Bulgaria, and North Macedonia will be affected.
Shift to Asia and global market pressure
After the EU’s 2023 embargo on most Russian seaborne oil, Moscow redirected exports toward Asia. China now accounts for over $219 billion in purchases of Russian oil, gas, and coal since the start of the war, followed by India and Turkey.
According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), China and India bought about 85% of all Russian crude exports in September.
“Oil markets spiked higher after news emerged that the U.S. was putting Russia’s major oil producers under sanctions,” said Steve Clayton, head of equity funds at Hargreaves Lansdown. Brent crude jumped 4% to nearly $65 a barrel following the announcement.
Regional vulnerability and political tension
Energy experts say the Western Balkans remain particularly vulnerable to market volatility due to their limited refining capacity and dependence on regional supply chains.
“Countries like Serbia and Bosnia will again feel the secondary shock of sanctions aimed at Moscow,” said a Brussels-based diplomat familiar with EU energy policy. “This will further test their political balancing act between Russia and the West.”
The U.S. sanctions give trading partners until November 21 to close or exit contracts with Rosneft and Lukoil, offering a short window for governments and firms to adapt.
Analysts expect that if oil prices remain high, inflation could rise again across the Balkans — already burdened by high energy costs and slow EU integration.
“Even a modest rise in crude prices quickly filters into local fuel costs,” said the diplomat. “For small economies, this is not just an energy issue — it’s political.”