By Majlinda Bregu
After years of effort and work trying to understand the European future of the Western Balkans, I no longer read economic reports only through a political lens. I read them with a growing sense of unease. With the hope that I am now able to judge them more objectively—without undermining a straightforward analysis.
The OECD—Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development—has recently published two reports: the Global Economic Outlook and the Economic Convergence Table for the Western Balkans, or in other words, the development gap the region faces with Europe. Read together, they reveal a simple truth: global shocks = local pain. A slowdown in global growth, rising inflation, trade barriers, and every new conflict or war—hit hardest the smallest and most economically fragile countries. Our region’s dependence on trade with the EU adds another layer of concern, especially with the rising costs of food and energy. In short: uncertainty will be the dominant theme for quite some time.
In an increasingly fragmented and uncertain world, the ability to cooperate on trade, digital development, and investment is no longer a choice. It is a necessity. For regions like the Western Balkans—who not only seek EU membership but also aim for comparable living standards—the message is clear: structural reforms are no longer about ticking boxes in negotiation chapters. They are bridges to a competitive economy prepared for the future.
Trade policies must be more reliable and collaborative.
Support for innovation and digital services—from healthcare to education—can become the engine of growth that finally narrows the competitiveness gap. But only if we shake off the carelessness that holds us back and take seriously the task of closing this gap.
In the Western Balkans, the lack of trust is not some abstract scientific formula. It has names. It has faces. It’s the young person preparing to leave; the entrepreneur hesitant to expand; the small business paying ever-rising bills and facing more barriers than support.
Between 2015–2024, more than 635,000 people emigrated, shrinking the Western Balkan population by 4.4 million—with Albania experiencing the highest rate of emigration.
77% of businesses in the region report increased costs. Only one in three expects any improvement. (Balkan Barometer, 2023)
Meanwhile, labor productivity stagnates at just 40% of the EU average. Youth unemployment remains dramatically high. Only 34% of adults possess basic digital skills.
Investment in Research & Development is scarce—just 17% of the EU level—and relies almost entirely on strained state budgets.
The OECD uses a telling term: hurdle rate, or the minimum acceptable rate of return on investment. In the Western Balkans, the hurdle rate is not just economic. It’s institutional. Legal. Psychological. It is no longer the interest rate that decides whether investment happens or not. It is uncertainty.
Every reform that’s delayed, every unstable law, every convoluted procedure pushes us another step away from that goal.
The OECD warns: if we continue like this—without bold and coordinated reforms—the Western Balkans might reach the EU average only by 2074.
But what kind of Europe will that be in 2074?
An older Europe. More digital. More exposed to climate crises.
And perhaps more fragmented—if cohesion policies fail to deliver on their promises.
A continent where Artificial Intelligence will drive industrial policy, where the green economy will no longer be the exception, but the rule.
And where regions that fail to keep pace today risk being left permanently behind.
We know our problems—morally, humanly, institutionally.
Among us, they seem more tangled than they are. And they cannot be solved by report formulas. Youth unemployment, low innovation funding, lack of career sustainability, legal instability, a still-fragmented regional market, etc.
Are there solutions?
Of course. Here, I’ve only referred to reports which—like the symbolism of their publication—are like a lighthouse in the storm: they illuminate, but the path to swim safely doesn’t depend on the light alone.
In rough seas, it’s not the lack of tools that sinks you—it’s the hesitation to use them with responsibility and seriousness.