The Western Balkans are grappling with significant population shifts, mirroring global trends outlined in the United Nations’ World Population Prospects 2024. The report highlights a regional population decline due to aging demographics, low fertility rates, and migration, raising concerns about economic growth and sustainability.

Countries in the Western Balkans, including Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Kosovo, have experienced population stagnation or decline. Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina are among the 63 nations worldwide whose populations peaked before 2024. According to the report, Bosnia and Herzegovina is projected to see one of the largest relative population reductions by 2054.

This trend is primarily driven by sustained low fertility rates, with many countries falling below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman. Migration also exacerbates population loss as young people seek better economic opportunities abroad.

Economic and social implications

The shrinking and aging populations pose serious challenges to the region. Economists warn that a declining labor force will hinder economic growth and strain social welfare systems. By 2054, over half of the Western Balkans’ population is expected to be over 65 years old, placing unprecedented pressure on healthcare and pension systems.

“The demographic changes in the Western Balkans are a call for action,” said a regional analyst. “Without targeted policies, the region risks facing severe economic and social consequences.”

Migration

Migration remains a critical factor in population decline. While emigration has long been a characteristic of the region, the report emphasizes its increasing impact. High rates of youth migration contribute to a “brain drain,” further weakening the economic potential of these countries.

The UN report suggests that some Western Balkan countries, such as Serbia and Montenegro, might experience population stabilization through immigration policies, but this requires significant reforms.

Solution

The UN calls for a multifaceted approach to address demographic challenges. Key recommendations include:

Encouraging family-friendly policies: Governments should invest in affordable childcare, housing, and paid parental leave to support larger families.

Addressing gender disparities: Closing gaps in employment and domestic responsibilities can empower women to balance work and family life.

Investing in youth: Education and job creation are vital to retaining young talent and reducing emigration.

Promoting return migration: Creating economic opportunities for expatriates could reverse some of the losses caused by emigration.

The challenges facing the Western Balkans reflect a broader global pattern of population peaks and subsequent declines. While the region’s demographic future appears uncertain, experts stress the importance of bold policies to navigate this transformative period.

As the UN report notes, understanding and responding to these trends will be key to ensuring the sustainability and prosperity of the Western Balkans in the decades to come.