The lifting of U.S. sanctions on Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik has exposed a growing rift between Banja Luka and Belgrade, as Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić reportedly distances himself from his longtime political ally.
According to reports in the German-language press, including Die Presse and Frankfurter Rundschau, Washington has quietly removed sanctions on Dodik, members of his family and other officials, though no official explanation has been provided. Serbian officials have hinted they had been working behind the scenes to improve ties with the United States.
The decision comes after Dodik lost his mandate as president of Republika Srpska in August following a court ruling — a development that weakened his influence both domestically and regionally.
A “Cold War” Between Former Allies
For years, Dodik and Vučić were seen as inseparable partners, sharing stages at public events, inaugurations, and nationalist rallies. But in recent months, the Bosnian Serb leader — once omnipresent in Belgrade — has been notably absent, fueling speculation that their political “brotherhood” has fractured.
Beograd and Sarajevo-based media now speak of the “end of an unstable love” between Vučić and Dodik, or even a “cold war” between the two.
Frankfurter Rundschau reports that Dodik’s recent pivot toward improving relations with Washington, coupled with his softer tone toward Bosnia’s institutions, has caused frustration in Belgrade. By appointing Ana Tršić, a figure seen as acceptable to Western diplomats, as acting president of Republika Srpska, Dodik is viewed as having adjusted his strategy to please foreign partners.
Vučić’s Silence and Calculations
Vučić has refrained from public criticism of Dodik, but sources close to the Serbian government suggest he has been angered by the Bosnian Serb’s political repositioning. According to media reports, Dodik reacted furiously when senior Serbian Progressive Party officials accused him of “capitulating too easily” to U.S. pressure.
Serbian officials including Aleksandar Vulin and former minister Ratko Dmitrović — described by the German press as Vučić loyalists — have publicly criticized Dodik’s latest moves. Dmitrović even alleged that the leadership in Banja Luka had quietly accepted Bosnia’s potential NATO membership, a red line for many in Belgrade.
A “More Obedient” Successor?
Analysts cited by Frankfurter Rundschau suggest that Vučić could back a new political figure in Republika Srpska ahead of the next presidential elections — someone “more obedient” and aligned with Belgrade’s regional strategy. Possible names include Banja Luka mayor Draško Stanivuković and opposition politician Jelena Trivić.
“Without office, Dodik is politically dead and of little use to Vučić,” said analyst Aleksandar Popov, adding that “Belgrade needs someone who can be Dodik after Dodik.”
As Washington and Moscow continue to shape the political dynamics in the Balkans, the unraveling of the Vučić–Dodik alliance marks a new chapter in Serbia’s balancing act between nationalism, pragmatism, and Western pressure.