By Denko Maleski
What is happening to the world order? Does the saying that “the world moves in the direction America moves” still hold? Let’s examine. Under Donald Trump, America is no longer a constitutional democracy but an authoritarian system run by executive orders of a single individual—the president. The same lawlessness now dominates the global order. In that sense, yes, “the world moves as America moves.” There is no longer respect for international law or the UN Charter, and the United Nations finds itself in a situation reminiscent of the failed League of Nations in the chaos preceding World War II. At that time, the great powers pursued a new redistribution of global power through territorial conquest: Germany in Europe, Japan in China, Italy in Ethiopia… Something similar is happening today.
The end of the unipolar moment has brought a new redistribution of global power. New spheres of influence are being delineated. “South America, the Middle East, and Greenland are mine, and in Asia I will oppose China,” Trump proclaims, leading a major power whose influence is in decline.
Through military action in Venezuela, Trump complicates the lives of European allies, whose policies, they themselves claim, are based on the principles of international law. At the very least, the U.S. president could have used the old vocabulary and argued that the kidnapping of Maduro is part of restoring democracy and freedom in Venezuela. Then the intervention could have been deemed legitimate. But what can they say now, when Trump openly declares that the goal of military intervention is Venezuelan oil?
In a surprising turn, North Macedonia’s foreign minister was among the first to praise Trump’s action in kidnapping Maduro and his wife, effectively putting words in the American president’s mouth reminiscent of older times: that this is, after all, a struggle for democracy and freedom for the Venezuelan people.
What will happen in the coming days? According to Trump’s statements at yesterday’s press conference, he expects everything to go smoothly. This recalls George W. Bush’s triumphant speech after Saddam Hussein’s capture, delivered from an American aircraft carrier, declaring victory in Iraq. In reality, it was followed by years of hell and a civil war where everyone fought everyone. Isn’t it highly likely that the same could happen in Venezuela?
America is taking control of Venezuela, Trump declared calmly and confidently at yesterday’s press conference. When asked who would specifically govern the country, he pointed to people standing behind him, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of War Pete Hegset. Of course, this is not feasible. Someone on the ground in Venezuela will have to manage the state.
From the follow-up questions, it became clear that Trump decided to implement his political will through Venezuela’s vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, rather than opposition leader Maria Machado. But soon Rodriguez defied Trump, declaring that only Maduro is the legitimate president of Venezuela.
How events will unfold from here, only God knows. One thing is clear: American politicians have yet to learn that when a state is decapitated, you cannot simply graft a new head onto its political body. Numerous examples illustrate this, including Gaddafi in Libya, Saddam Hussein in Iraq, and Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
All these cases show that after such interventions, nothing goes smoothly, and almost always a long period of instability, unrest, or civil war follows.
Venezuela is a vast country—roughly the size of Germany, France, and Austria combined—with over 30 million people. The potential for a repeat of the familiar story seen in other states subjected to political violence is high, and a smooth transition to total American domination of the country sounds like a children’s tale. But time will tell. The risk of America becoming bogged down in yet another “forever” war is significant.