By Bojana Zorić

The New Year got off to a sombre start in Novi Sad as thousands gathered at 11:52 a.m. to honour the memory of the 15 lives lost in the tragic collapse of the railway station canopy.

The disaster, which occurred on 1 November, sparked a wave of protests that grew in intensity over the following two months. What began as a student demonstration in Novi Sad quickly spread to other cities, including Belgrade, Niš, and Kragujevac. Students blockaded faculties in a show of solidarity and growing outrage. They demanded full transparency in the reconstruction of the Novi Sad railway station, which had recently been renovated, accountability for those responsible for the fatal roof collapse (including Prime Minister Miloš Vučević and the mayor of Novi Sad, Milan Đurić), and the dismissal of charges against arrested protesters.

Students from high schools across Serbia have joined the protests, amplifying the calls for accountability and systemic change. Support has also poured in from academics, scientists, and even the Serbian diaspora, with rallies held in cities such as Paris, Brussels and Ljubljana to show solidarity with the movement.

What fuelled student outrage even further was the report released by Amnesty International in December 2024 which revealed that Serbia’s Security Intelligence Agency (BIA) had been spying on civil activists. Using advanced spyware like NoviSpy and forensic tools from Israeli firm Cellebrite, authorities reportedly extracted data from activists’ phones during detentions and police interviews. Amnesty condemned these actions as a clear case of ‘digital repression … directed against civil society’.

Today Serbia faces mounting pressure on two fronts: the need to implement crucial domestic reforms as a prerequisite for EU accession, and external demands.

The current protests, deemed among the largest in Serbia’s recent history by the non-governmental organisation ‘Arhiv javnih skupova’, were analysed using video and photographic evidence. Active in monitoring public gatherings since 1991, the organisation has drawn parallels with the historic September 2000 demonstrations that led to Milošević’s downfall.

Today Serbia faces mounting pressure on two fronts: the need to implement crucial domestic reforms as a prerequisite for EU accession, and external demands, including calls from the US to curb foreign influence. With shifting geopolitical dynamics at play, the outcome of the protests will determine the country’s ability to prioritise these essential reforms in the coming year.

The country’s patience is wearing thin

The ongoing protests are not isolated incidents, but reflect a broader pattern of public discontent that has been growing over the past few years. In August 2024, citizens rallied against the government’s renewed lithium mining plans in the Jadar Valley, rekindling environmental concerns that had emerged during mass demonstrations in 2021-2022. Earlier, in May 2023, mass shootings at a Belgrade school and in the villages of Malo Orašje and Dubona triggered widespread outrage, leading to calls for the resignation of top security officials. In December 2023, election-related protests erupted under the banner ‘Serbia Against Violence’, as opposition parties accused the government of electoral fraud and demanded new elections. These ongoing movements highlight a growing willingness among citizens to mobilise en masse against environmental, political and social injustices.

President Vučić has often turned to referenda on his own presidency as his go-to crisis management tactic. This January, he lost no time in suggesting one to address the students’ demands. A December 2024 survey by CRTA revealed that 61% of Serbians backed the protests and blockades after the Novi Sad canopy collapse – even drawing support from one in ten ruling party voters and a quarter of pro-government media followers. President Vučić’s proposal for a consultative referendum on confidence in his presidency, even if it were to take place, would likely fail to gain public support. According to the same survey, 52% of citizens would vote against him, while only 34% would back him.

The opposition has dismissed the proposed referendum, calling it a ‘political charade’. Instead, they demand that the government meet the students’ demands and call for a transitional government to ensure free and fair parliamentary elections once the necessary conditions are met. According to the Law on Referendum and the People’s Initiative, a consultative referendum is not legally binding, meaning the legislative and executive branches are not obliged to act in accordance with its results. Moreover, as a directly elected official, Serbia’s president can only be removed in cases of constitutional violations.

Zooming out to the bigger picture

Protests in Serbia, the region’s economic powerhouse, are no small matter. Domestic unrest in Serbia can have far-reaching consequences for the entire region, making stability within the country a critical concern for its neighbours. This takes on added significance within the context of the EU enlargement process. The new Commission is doubling down on a merit-based approach and firmly rejecting any notion of a ‘geopolitical discount’. Attention is now shifting to Albania and Montenegro, hailed by the Commissioner as the region’s ‘frontrunners’.

Meanwhile, Serbia’s EU accession remains at a standstill, with no chapters opened since 2021. The opening of Cluster 3 (Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth) has been pushed to 2025, provided Serbia makes significant progress, including in the rule-of-law reforms. It is precisely these rule-of-law issues, which are a key focus of EU scrutiny, that lie at the core of the demands of Serbian protesters.

Domestic unrest in Serbia can have far-reaching consequences for the entire region.

With the Polish EU presidency strongly supportive of enlargement, Serbia has a chance to revive its enlargement momentum. However, ongoing protests at home cast doubt on whether the government can muster the focus and determination needed to deliver the progress required to win over EU Member States.

Serbia faces additional challenges as new US sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas sector reverberate globally, directly impacting the country. The sanctions require Russian companies PJSC Gazprom Neft and PJSC Gazprom to fully divest their 56.15% majority stake in Serbian oil company NIS within 45 days. President Vučić confirmed the US demand for a complete Russian exit, describing the measures as ‘serious sanctions’, and acknowledged that any ownership restructuring would need approval from Washington. This shows how determined the Biden administration was to ensure a complete divestment of Russian interests in the company, leaving no loose ends.

The sanctions’ fate now lies with President Trump. Lifting them would require Congressional notification, with the risk of strong opposition from Republican lawmakers who largely supported the measures. The sanctions strike at the heart of Russia’s war machine, targeting its primary revenue stream to choke off funding for the conflict in Ukraine. This aligns with President Trump’s electoral promise to end the war, suggesting the possibility that sanctions will continue under his administration.

What lies ahead?

There are two possible outcomes to the ongoing protests: they could escalate into a nationwide strike, forcing the government to make significant political concessions, or the authorities could respond with stricter measures to suppress dissent, potentially including the use of force. However, any heavy-handed crackdown would likely backfire, worsening the crisis and further eroding public trust.

The EU should deliver a unified message through diplomatic and public channels, reinforcing support for fundamental rights that align with EU values. Emanuele Giaufret, Head of the EU Delegation to Serbia, emphasised this point, stating that the EU ‘values people’s ability to express themselves and make their voices heard’. Accession progress should be linked to Serbia’s commitment to democracy, with the EU standing firm on human rights, transparency, and freedom of expression.

Any heavy-handed crackdown would likely backfire, worsening the crisis and further eroding public trust.

The Serbian government faces a critical challenge amid mounting US sanctions: navigating this crisis without the domestic support it needs. Public opinion remains firmly pro-Russian, with a 2024 survey showing that 46% of Serbians see Russia as the country’s closest ally, while just 2% favour the US. Complying with Washington’s demands to eliminate Russia’s stake in NIS – and forfeiting preferential gas supplies – would signal a sharp pivot towards the West. But with protests intensifying and public frustration rising, the government risks inflaming tensions at this already precarious juncture.

What happens domestically will be decisive. Will this movement spark a systemic shift, or will it fizzle out into localised unrest? The momentum seems to be with the protesters, bolstered by widespread public support. If these protests evolve into a nationwide movement, they could mark a turning point in Serbia’s political trajectory.

Source: EUSS