U.S. sanctions targeting Serbia’s oil industry came into force on Wednesday, striking at NIS, one of the pillars of the country’s economy, over its majority Russian ownership inherited from the 2008 privatization deal that gave Gazprom Neft control of the company.
NIS said it had sufficient reserves of crude oil and that its petrol stations were fully supplied, urging consumers not to panic or queue at pumps. “Sales are proceeding normally and there are no restrictions on quantities customers can purchase,” the company said in a statement.
Still, analysts warned of tougher challenges ahead. With oil supplies through the JANAF pipeline cut off, Serbia again faces the vulnerability of its energy dependence. “Citizens risk reliving the shortages we thought were left behind in the 1990s,” wrote Misa Brkic, a columnist for the Vreme weekly. According to him, the government is exploring a “creative solution” — forming a “ghost fleet” to transport crude by river from Hungary.
Unusual activity in Serbia’s business circles appears to back that claim. “Two influential businessmen close to the regime have rushed to register oil-carrying vessels with the national regulator,” Brkic said. He reported that the plan involves a large fleet of ships and barges tasked with shipping crude from Hungary’s MOL group to NIS’s refinery in Pancevo via the Danube — a Serbian version of the “shadow fleet” Moscow uses to bypass Western sanctions.
The creation of such a fleet may be the only viable option left, as other procurement channels have collapsed. Brkic also reported that the same business figures quietly attempted last spring to buy out Gazprom Neft’s stake in NIS, but the effort was uncovered by Russian intelligence. President Vladimir Putin allegedly reminded Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic during his May visit to Moscow that Russia’s share “is not for sale at any price.”
Beyond supply issues, the U.S. financial sanctions could paralyze NIS’s international transactions. If foreign card payments — MasterCard and Visa — are suspended, petrol stations would only accept the national DINA card, cash, or Serbia’s instant payment system IPS. The company said dinar-denominated transactions, including wholesale operations, continue as usual, and corporate cards remain functional. However, several banking sources expect NIS’s foreign accounts to be frozen, potentially disrupting international cash flows.
A new uncertainty also hangs over the company’s 5,000 employees. After the sanctions were announced, salaries were reportedly paid a month in advance — a sign of internal anxiety. Officially, management insists that “the social stability of employees remains a priority.” But if international transactions are blocked and imports compromised, the survival of NIS itself could be at risk.