The United States has not renewed a special license for Serbia’s oil company NIS, effectively extending sanctions against the Russian-majority-owned energy group, Serbian media reported on Wednesday.
Analysts said the move will have political and logistical consequences for Serbia’s energy sector, as the country relies on oil deliveries through Croatia’s JANAF pipeline.
“The last shipment of crude oil will arrive tomorrow in Omišalj. Our storage tanks are full, and once the 631-kilometre JANAF pipeline is filled, oil will continue flowing under pressure through Croatian territory,” said Nebojša Oberknežev from the Center for Social Stability, in an interview with Euronews Serbia.
He said Serbia’s mandatory state reserves were sufficient for about two months, while operational reserves held by NIS were enough to sustain production for six to seven months. “The refinery must process about 6,000 tonnes of crude daily, and reserves are adequate for that level of output. There is no reason for panic,” he said.
Oberknežev added that Serbia expanded its oil storage capacity by 100,000 tonnes in 2019 and that both state and military reserves were located near the Danube port of Smederevo. “The key now is finding an adequate banking solution,” he said, referring to restrictions on financial transactions following the U.S. decision.
Political analyst Vladimir Dobrosavljević said the sanctions had been expected since the European Union announced restrictions on Russian-owned energy firms in 2022. “We are deep within the sphere of influence of one global bloc,” he said. “There was time to prepare and clarify relations with Russian partners, even to consider nationalization, but that was never done.”
Energy expert Miloš Zdravković said removing NIS from the U.S. sanctions list would be a long and complex process. “These are not U.N. sanctions — Serbia will not be hermetically sealed,” he told FoNet news agency. “But the state budget will be hit, since NIS contributed nearly 12% of Serbia’s fiscal revenues in 2023.”
Zdravković said the situation was similar to Croatia’s restructuring of its INA refinery network under MOL ownership, and that Serbia may increasingly depend on imported fuel from Hungary, Austria and neighbouring countries.
The U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) placed NIS on its Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list in January due to its Russian ownership structure. Gazprom Neft and Gazprom together control more than 55% of NIS.
The company said it had prepared for the sanctions and secured sufficient supplies. “NIS has enough crude oil for processing and all gas stations remain fully supplied,” it said in a statement, adding that it would continue to work with the Serbian government and shareholders “to overcome the current situation.”
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said earlier that the Pančevo refinery could continue operating without additional crude deliveries until Nov. 1, “but it will be difficult after that.”
Croatia’s state pipeline operator JANAF, which supplies NIS through Omišalj, said it was seeking alternative business to offset lost revenue from halted shipments. Croatian Economy Minister Ante Šušnjar said Zagreb was open to “exploring potential acquisitions” of NIS if that would “help stabilize the regional market.”